|
The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland. Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on September 15 on his Russian- and English-language channels that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine that would allow NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia.” Medvedev also claimed that Russia will “go after” EU states that provide Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” Medvedev threatened that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly claimed on September 15 that “NATO is at war with Russia” and that “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine. Peskov, like Medvedev, condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, saying that “such steps will not go unnoticed.”
Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian and Belarusian forces conducted training exercises at the Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast and in Kaliningrad Oblast and the Barents Sea. Russian forces also conducted exercises in Russia’s Far East. The Russian MoD confirmed that Russian elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed that the nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching a missile strike against a naval target and that elements of the Russian Northern Fleet practiced striking a mock enemy nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers patrolled ”the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours. The Belarusian MoD reported that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Turkey, observed Zapad-2025 exercises in Belarus.
The September 12-14 gubernatorial elections in Russia further demonstrated the Kremlin’s grip on power throughout the country. Russia held 20 gubernatorial and 11 regional parliamentary elections on September 12 to 14. Incumbents won in all of the gubernatorial races, including 19 candidates from the ruling United Russia party and one independent candidate from the A Just Russia Party, whose candidacy Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously approved. All of the incumbents won with at least 60 percent of the vote, with seven candidates gaining more than 80 percent of the vote. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on September 15 that the elections were a success and that the results indicate Russian society’s “consolidation…around [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and his team.” Russian Security Council Chairperson and United Russia Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the number of electoral violations was “minimal” but that Russian authorities will “deal” with the violations that did occur. Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) claimed that there were 149,717 observers present at polling stations, but Russian opposition outlet Meduza noted that the Kremlin has not allowed independent observers to monitor Russian elections since 2016.
|
