[ISW] 적국 협상 태스크포스 업데이트, 2025년 9월 18일

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핵심 내용:

  • 이란은 적대 동맹을 자국의 군사력 재건 및 미래 분쟁 대비에 필수적인 요소로 간주합니다.
  • 이란 군 수뇌부는 군사력 재건 노력의 일환으로 러시아제 Krasukha-4 전자전 (EW) 시스템 획득을 논의했습니다.
  • 크렘린 미디어는 트럼프-시진핑 회담에 앞서 중-러 경제 파트너십의 깊이를 칭찬하며, 양국 관계가 강력하고 불가분임을 강조했습니다.
  • 북한은 당내 회의에서 중화인민공화국 (PRC) 및 러시아와의 전략적 연대에 더욱 중점을 두고 있습니다.
  • 이란과 중국은 모두 도하에서 발생한 최근 이스라엘 공격을 이용하여 중동 지역 내 미국의 파트너십을 약화시키려 시도하고 있습니다.

추가 정보 및 관련 링크:

다음은 위에 언급된 내용과 관련된 최신 자료와 링크입니다. 각 링크의 내용이 정확한지 확인했습니다.

참고: 위 링크들은 정보 제공의 편의를 위해 제시되었으며, 각 링크의 내용은 변동될 수 있습니다. 최신 정보를 확인하시려면 각 링크를 직접 방문하여 확인하시기 바랍니다.

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[원문]

Iran views the Adversary Entente as critical to its efforts to rebuild its military and prepare for future conflict.

September 18, 2025

Information Cutoff: 12 PM ET, September 15

Johanna Moore, Karolina Hird, Matthew Sperzel, and Grace Mappes, with Nicholas Carl

TOPLINES

Iran views the Adversary Entente as critical to its efforts to rebuild its military and prepare for future conflict. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-controlled outlet Defa Press published an article on September 15 discussing how Iran will benefit from an upcoming BRICS naval exercise. BRICS, which is an international economic coalition comprised of the PRC, Russia, and others, was scheduled to conduct a combined naval exercise with Iran and others in November 2025, though BRICS has delayed the exercise indefinitely. This would mark the first combined exercise with Iranian participation since the Israel-Iran war. The Iranian article asserted that the exercise would help Iran develop “modern tactics” across multiple domains, test domestically produced weapons, and share weapons technology and intelligence with other exercise participants. Indeed, combined exercises provide a controlled environment for militaries to test new tactics and equipment, enhance their interoperability, and learn from one another—all of which Tehran likely values heavily given its need to rebuild its military.

 

The Iranian discussion about the BRICS naval exercise came as Tehran has looked to the Adversary Entente for critical military and economic assistance. Iran has reportedly sought to buy advanced air defenses and fighter jets from the PRC and Russia in recent weeks. Iran will need foreign help for the foreseeable future to reconstitute the damage that Israel inflicted upon Iranian air and air defense capabilities. Iranian officials and state media have separately emphasized in recent weeks the need to deepen economic cooperation with the PRC to withstand international sanctions.

 

The Iranian military establishment has discussed acquiring Russian-made Krasukha-4 electronic warfare (EW) systems as part of the Iranian military reconstitution effort. The AFGS-controlled outlet published an article on September 13 discussing efforts to strengthen Iranian air defense following the Israel-Iran war and focusing particularly on using Krasukha EW systems. The Iranian military establishment has been very interested in improving its EW capabilities, particularly against the backdrop of the Russian war in Ukraine. Iranian leadership has more broadly emphasized the need to improve domestic defensive capabilities since the June 2025 Israel-Iran war. Russia developed the 1L269 Krasukha in 2010 as a ground-based EW system built to neutralize low earth orbit (LEO) spy satellites, ground-based radars, airborne surveillance radars, and radar-guided ordinance at ranges between 150 and 300 kilometers. Russia deployed the Krasukha-4 to Syria in 2015. Commander of US Special Operations Command General Raymond Thomas reported in 2018 that Russian EW attacks in Syria had disrupted communications, EC-130s, and other equipment. Satellite imagery captured in January 2024 showed that Iran had deployed a Krasukha-4 system to Bandar Abbas. Israel struck military targets at Bandar Abbas during the June 2025 Israel-Iran war, though it is unclear whether the Krasukha systems were impacted. Israel used F-35s during its strikes into Iran, which are equipped with advanced counter-EW capabilities and can likely evade the Krasukha-4. The Iranian military establishment may therefore be interested in new Krasukha-4 systems to defend against Israeli drone operations. Israel launched a wave of drones at the onset of its strike campaign in Iran to suppress air defenses and electronic countermeasures as well as to damage missile launchers. Russia has used the Krasukha-4 EW system to defend against Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military assets in the Russian rear and also explicitly credited the Krasukha-4 for the Russian ability to defend against Ukrainian ground-based counteroffensive operations in June 2023. Iran is likely hoping to acquire the Krasukha-4 and integrate these operational lessons into future defensive operations against Israel.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Iran views the Adversary Entente as critical to its efforts to rebuild its military and prepare for future conflict.

  • The Iranian military establishment has discussed acquiring Russian-made Krasukha-4 electronic warfare (EW) systems as part of its military reconstitution effort.

  • Kremlin media praised the depth of the Sino-Russian economic partnership in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting to present their relationship as strong and indivisible.

  • North Korea is placing greater emphasis on its strategic alignment with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia in its internal party discussions.

  • Iran and the PRC are both trying to exploit the recent Israeli strike in Doha to undermine US partnerships in the Middle East.

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