September 18, 2025

Information Cutoff: 1:30 pm ET

Johanna Moore, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Ben Schmida, Nidal Morrison, Kelly Campa, Ria Reddy, and Brian Carter

Senior Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, met with Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov in Tehran on September 18 to discuss energy cooperation, likely in an effort to address energy shortages in Iran. Paknejad and Tsivilyov reviewed the Iran-Russia April 2025 agreement for Russia to export 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Iran annually via Azerbaijan. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously stated in January 2025 that Russian gas deliveries to Iran would start at 2 billion cubic meters per year and could increase to 55 billion cubic meters annually. Iran, and especially northern Iran, faces recurring gas shortages during the winter because Iran has limited gas storage capacity, and energy production is concentrated in the South Pars gas field in southern Iran. Iranian media reported that Iran faces a potential steep decline in overall gas production over the next five to seven years. Iranian officials may be concerned about potential unrest as a result of ongoing chronic energy shortages. Energy shortages have previously caused protests in northeastern Iran. Recent energy shortages have forced the Iranian government to temporarily shut down offices, banks, schools, and government buildings.

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi also met with Tsivilyov and emphasized the importance of deepening bilateral defense cooperation amid Western sanctions. These meetings reflect Iranian efforts to deepen strategic cooperation with Russia under the framework of the January 2025 Russo-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Agreement.

French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18 that UN snapback sanctions on Iran are a “done deal” and will be reimposed at the end of September. Macron told Israeli media that Iran has failed to make serious commitments. Iran reportedly presented the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) with a proposal earlier this week to extend the snapback deadline by several months in exchange for positive steps to curtail its nuclear program and an Iranian move to resume talks with the United States. The E3 reportedly viewed the proposal as “insufficient,” according to a source familiar with the proposal. The E3 triggered the 30-day Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback process on August 28. The UN Security Council will reimpose snapback sanctions on Iran when the 30-day process concludes on September 27 unless Iran meets the criteria laid out under the JCPOA.

• Snapback Sanctions on Iran: French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18 that UN snapback sanctions on Iran are a “done deal” and will be reimposed at the end of September. Macron told Israeli media that Iran has failed to make serious commitments. The UN Security Council will reimpose snapback sanctions on Iran when the 30-day process concludes on September 27 unless Iran meets the criteria laid out under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

• Iran-Russia Energy Cooperation: Senior Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, met with Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov in Tehran on September 18 to discuss energy cooperation, likely in an effort to address energy shortages in Iran. Iranian officials may be concerned about potential unrest as a result of ongoing chronic energy shortages.

• Iranian Military Cooperation with US Adversaries: Iran views Russia and China as critical to its efforts to rebuild its military and prepare for future conflict. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-controlled outlet Defa Press published an article on September 15 discussing how Iran will benefit from an upcoming BRICS naval exercise. The Iranian article asserted that the exercise would help Iran develop “modern tactics” across multiple domains, test domestically produced weapons, and share weapons technology and intelligence with other exercise participants.

• Iran-Russia Defense Cooperation: The Iranian military establishment has discussed acquiring Russian-made Krasukha-4 electronic warfare (EW) systems as part of the Iranian military reconstitution effort. Iran is likely hoping to acquire the Krasukha-4 and integrate these operational lessons in future defensive operations against Israel.

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