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The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Putin claimed on September 18 that there are over 700,000 Russian soldiers on the frontline in Ukraine. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on September 17 that Russian forces are advancing on “practically all fronts” in the war. Putin’s and Gerasimov’s statements are in line with Putin’s overarching theory of victory that assumes that Russia has the resources and combat capability to continue gradual advances indefinitely and win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Putin’s theory of victory is predicated on the assumption that Russia will be able to outlast Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. Putin has repeatedly indicated that he believes that Russian forces will be able to achieve his war goals on the battlefield, even if they are only making creeping advances, as Putin likely assesses that his troops will be able to leverage their manpower and materiel advantages to overwhelm Ukrainian forces. Putin’s and Gerasimov’s recent statements are part of wider Kremlin efforts to push Ukraine and the West to immediately acquiesce to Putin’s maximalist demands out of fear that a Russian victory is inevitable and that Russian aggression will only increase in the future.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations. Russian gains on the battlefield have come at a high cost, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting on September 9 that Russian forces have suffered 299,210 casualties killed and wounded in action since January 2025 alone. Russian forces have been advancing at a creeping foot pace throughout 2025, and Russia’s casualty rates have been disproportionately high compared to the amount of territory seized. Putin has also mismanaged Russia’s economy throughout the war, resulting in increased and unsustainable wartime spending, growing inflation, and significant labor shortages. Putin’s focus on defense spending and the buildup of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has notably come at the expense of the civilian economic sectors. Russia’s ability to fund its war machine is in part reliant on Russian oil exports, which fund a significant portion of Russia’s federal revenues. US President Donald Trump noted these Russian weaknesses, stating on September 18 that Russia is incurring more losses in the war than Ukraine and that Putin will have to “drop out” of the war should oil prices come down.
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on September 18 that Russia is only willing to compromise in Ukraine if a peace settlement ensures Russia’s “legitimate security interests” as well as the interests of Russians who live in Ukraine. Lavrov also claimed that the United States understands the need to address the so-called “root causes” of the war. Kremlin officials, including Lavrov, have consistently used “legitimate security interests” and “root causes” as shorthand to reiterate Russia’s original war demands, which Kremlin officials have continuously asserted Russia will achieve either militarily or diplomatically. Lavrov is attempting to falsely posture Russia as willing to compromise despite the Kremlin’s repeated demands that Ukraine capitulate and acquiesce to Russia’s maximalist demands.
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