|
The United States and the PRC are finalizing an agreement on the sale of TikTok to US investors. The deal would reportedly allow PRC-based company ByteDance to retain ownership of the proprietary TikTok content algorithm, which would mark a major US concession to Beijing. This would allow ByteDance to retain control over the content that TikTok promotes to its users. The CCP could easily co-opt the algorithm to spread disinformation and shape public opinion to its advantage, especially during military operations against Taiwan. The Taiwan Information Environment Research Center found that TikTok users in Taiwan were considerably more likely to view the PRC positively and agree with CCP-aligned narratives regarding Taiwan and its relations with the United States compared with non-users.
The TikTok deal would come after the United States gave other concessions to the PRC to facilitate negotiations. Western media have reported in recent weeks that the United States denied Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te permission to visit and lifted restrictions on certain technology exports to the PRC—both meant to reduce tension with the PRC.
The PRC is evolving its efforts to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty around its outlying islands, possibly including Penghu. The PRC launched those efforts around the islands of Kinmen and Pratas in May 2024 and February 2025, respectively. The China Coast Guard (CCG) has repeatedly deployed to the Taiwanese-administered waters around Kinmen and Pratas ostensibly to protect PRC fishing vessels from Taiwanese authorities. This PRC effort is meant to test and exhaust Taiwanese response elements, intimidate Taiwanese leaders and the public, and portray the PRC as the legitimate authority over the islands by normalizing operations there.
The PRC intensified its maritime incursions into Taiwanese-administered waters in recent days. The CCG and several PRC fishing vessels entered or tried to enter the restricted waters around Pratas from September 11 to 15. Data from the Starboard Maritime Intelligence shows that additional ostensibly civilian PRC vessels operated there from September 15 to 17. The CCG separately conducted four incursions around Kinmen from September 15 to 17. This CCG activity is the highest frequency of consecutive incursions around Kinmen that CDOT-ISW has observed to date, likely representing all of the planned incursions for September, but very closely clustered together. The CCG normalized a pattern of four Kinmen incursions per month since 2024 but has varied the timing, entry points, and tactics of these incursions as a means of testing Taiwan’s response.
|
