September 22, 2025

Information Cutoff: 7:15 pm ET

Christina Harward, Anna Harvey, Justin Young, Jennie Olmsted, Olivia Gibson, Ian Matthews, and George Barros

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same. Putin claimed that Russia is prepared to continue to adhere to New START’s nuclear arms limitations for one year after it expires on February 5, 2026. New START limits the number of deployed US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads and bombs to 1,550; the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers for nuclear missions to 700; and the number of deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and bombers to 800. New START went into effect in 2011, and Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, claiming that the United States was developing new nuclear weapons. Putin claimed that Russia will decide between continuing its “voluntary self-restraint” in February 2027. Putin called on Russian agencies to monitor US adherence to New START until then and threatened that Russia “will respond accordingly.” Putin claimed that completely abandoning New START would be a “mistake” and “short-sighted.” Putin claimed that Russia can respond to any threats “not with words but through military-technical measures.” Putin’s veiled threats are the latest in Russia’s nuclear saber rattling, a tool that the Kremlin often employs as part of its wider reflexive control campaign that aims to push the West to make decisions that benefit Russia.

Putin blamed the West for undermining Russian-US arms cooperation and violating bilateral arms agreements—ignoring how Russia has violated numerous multilateral and bilateral treaties in the past decades. Russia has violated multiple treaties since Putin first became president in 2000. Russia exploited provisions of the Open Skies Treaty (which provided for mutual surveillance flights over member states’ territory) to collect imagery for intelligence purposes and instituted illegal overflight restrictions and airfield designations to legitimize Russia’s occupation of Ukraine and Georgia. Russia suspended its adherence to the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty (which placed limits on the deployment of heavy military equipment in Europe) in 2007 and continues to violate the treaty by stationing troops in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine without these states’ consent. Multiple US State Department Compliance Reports published since 2015 have noted how Russia selectively implements provisions of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Vienna Document on the exchange of data about armed forces between OSCE states, including Russia. A 2020 State Department report noted that Russia “no longer feels bound” by the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives that the United States and Russia agreed to in the early 1990s on the non-deployment and elimination of Russia’s arsenal of non-strategic nuclear weapons and that Russia maintained up to 2,000 such weapons in its stockpiles. Russia has repeatedly violated the Chemical Weapons Convention (which prohibits the use of chemical weapons and the development, production, acquisition, and stockpiling of chemical weapons and their precursors) both on the battlefield in Ukraine and with its poisoning of political opponents in Europe; Russia has refused to fully declare its chemical weapons stockpiles and production and development facilities. The State Department noted in response to Russia’s suspension of its participation in New START in 2023 that Russia refused to comply with the treaty’s requirements that the parties exchange data, including ICBM location and status updates and missile launch telemetry data; Russia denied US inspectors’ right to inspect ballistic missile sites in Russia. The United States suspended its participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (which banned US and Russian ground-launched nuclear and conventional intermediate- and shorter-range missiles) in February 2019 due to Russian violations with its development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles. Russia has also used Oreshnik ballistic missiles (which reportedly have a range banned under the INF Treaty) against Ukraine in November 2024 and announced that the missile entered into service in August 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same.

Putin blamed the West for undermining Russian-US arms cooperation and violating bilateral arms agreements—ignoring how Russia has violated numerous multilateral and bilateral treaties in the past decades.

Putin is attempting to pressure the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement and extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine, as ISW forecasted Russia would in August 2025.

Some Russian defense industrial enterprises are reportedly struggling to expand their production and workforces due to economic constraints, while the Kremlin is prioritizing funding for high-priority enterprises such as drone and missile manufacturers.

The United Nations (UN) reported that the number of casualties from Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians has increased by 40 percent so far in 2025 as compared to 2024.

Ukrainian forces may have targeted high ranking Russian officials in a reported strike against occupied Crimea on the night of September 21 to 22.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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