September 22, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Ben Rezai, Adham Fattah, Ben Schmida, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman,

Nidal Morrison, Zahra Wakilzada, Henry Jenks, Ria Reddy, and Brian Carter

Some Iranian hardliners are renewing calls to revise Iran’s nuclear doctrine as part of a broader effort to restore deterrence after the Israel-Iran War and two years of Israeli military actions that have collectively weakened Iran’s missile program and the Axis of Resistance, both of which were long pillars of Iran’s deterrence. Seventy-one Iranian parliamentarians sent a letter to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the heads of the three branches of government on September 22 and urged a revision of Iran’s defense doctrine. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2003 that banned the production and use of nuclear weapons. The SNSC and the three branches of government cannot overturn Khamenei’s fatwa, but they can advise Khamenei to allow Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. The new letter follows a similar effort in October 2024, when thirty-nine parliamentarians wrote to the SNSC and called for the revision of Iran’s “defense doctrine” and to issue permission and provide facilities for the “production of nuclear weapons.” Paydari (Stability) Front parliamentarian Hassan Ali Akhlaghi Amiri was the lead signatory of both the October 2024 and September 2025 letters. The near doubling of signatories over the past year indicates that calls to weaponize Iran’s nuclear program have become increasingly normalized in regime discourse. An Iranian expert close to the regime stated, without evidence, on September 21 that 90 percent of Iranians support acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Calls to revise Iran’s defense doctrine come as Iran has lost key pillars that it has traditionally used to deter its adversaries, including its missile and drone stockpiles and the Axis of Resistance. Israel has significantly degraded the Axis of Resistance and limited their ability or willingness to support Iran since October 2023. Iran’s proxies did not provide Iran with any meaningful support during the Israel-Iran War. Only the Houthis attacked Israel at all, and the Houthis’ actions did not change Israeli behavior. Israel intercepted 80 to 90 percent of Iran’s missiles during the 12-day war and destroyed 35 to 45 percent of Iran’s missile stockpile.

Iranian parliamentarian Mohsen Zanganeh stated in an interview on September 20 that Iran conducted a missile test on September 18 and said that Iran is “conducting a security test of an intercontinental [ballistic] missile.” Zanganeh’s phrasing is unclear and may suggest that Iran is taking some prerequisite steps to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile. CTP-ISW reported on September 19 that Iran tested an unidentified ballistic missile at the missile test range in the Semnan Space Center in Semnan Province on September 18, citing Iranian media. Zanganeh stated on September 20 that Iran had conducted a successful test of ”one of the country’s most advanced missiles” and added that ”even under these circumstances, we are conducting a security test of an intercontinental missile.“ It is unclear if Zanganeh is stating that Iran conducted an ICBM missile test on September 18 or plans to conduct one in the future. Zanganeh is a member of the parliament’s Economic Commission and previously worked as a representative at the Iranian Central Bank. It is unclear if Zanganeh would be privy to the details of the missile test.

Iranian Nuclear Program: Some Iranian hardliners are renewing calls to revise Iran’s nuclear doctrine as part of a broader effort to restore deterrence after the Israel-Iran War and two years of Israeli military actions that have collectively weakened Iran’s missile program and the Axis of Resistance, both of which were long pillars of Iran’s deterrence.

Iranian Missile Test: Iranian parliamentarian Mohsen Zanganeh stated in an interview on September 20 that Iran conducted a missile test on September 18 and said that Iran is “conducting a security test of an intercontinental [ballistic] missile.” It is unclear if Zanganeh is stating that Iran conducted an ICBM missile test on September 18 or plans to conduct one in the future.

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