|
Circumstantial evidence suggests that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still badly injured or otherwise incapacitated. Mojtaba has yet to appear in public or in any new images or videos since becoming the supreme leader on March 8. The regime has instead recycled old images and videos of him and issued only written statements. This continued absence has fueled rumors about Mojtaba’s status. The regime could easily dispel these rumors with a simple video, but has not, despite having many incentives to do so. This comes as US officials have stated that Mojtaba was seriously wounded.
Mojtaba emphasized narrative control, economic resilience, and regional policy in his Nowruz written statement on March 20. Mojtaba claimed that Iran’s adversaries had tried to exploit economic grievances and target senior leaders in order to “create fear” and collapse the regime. Mojtaba warned that adversaries used media operations to target the “minds and psyches of people” and undermine national unity. Mojtaba also urged domestic media to avoid emphasis on internal weaknesses. Mojtaba announced the Iranian New Year slogan as “Resistance Economy in the Shadow of National Unity and National Security” and reinforced the regime’s emphasis on economic self-sufficiency and resilience. Mojtaba also emphasized relations with neighboring states, highlighted shared religious, cultural, and strategic ties, and called on Afghanistan and Pakistan to improve relations. Mojtaba also falsely claimed that Iran and the Axis of Resistance did not conduct their recent attacks into Turkey and Oman. He described the attacks as part of an Israeli “false flag tactic” meant to create division between Iran and its neighbors.
Iranian leaders have said that they will continue to impede international shipping around the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X on March 17 that “the Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its pre-war status.” Expediency Discernment Council member Mohammad Mokhber stated on March 19 that there will be a ”new regime for the Strait of Hormuz” following the war. He said that Iran can use its position along the strait to “sanction [the West] and prevent their ships from passing through this waterway” even after the war ends. Iran has recently allowed certain vessels to transit the strait through an IRGC-managed “safe corridor.” A Tehran parliamentarian said on March 19 that the Iranian parliament is considering a proposal to impose fees on vessels that seek to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei wrote in his first statement since becoming the supreme leader that Iran will forcefully ”extract reparations from the enemy” and will “take” or destroy US and Israeli assets. Daily oil exports from the Middle East have fallen by at least 60 percent since the start of the war.
|
