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Iran appears to be attempting to exploit its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to end the war in a way that removes the US blockade of Iranian ports without Iran having to make nuclear concessions. Iran presented a new proposal to the United States in which it reportedly offered to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while postponing US-Iran nuclear negotiations to a later date. US President Donald Trump described the proposal on April 25 as “much better” than previous Iranian proposals but stated that the proposal is “not enough.” US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on April 27 that Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with his top national security aides and reiterated that Trump seeks to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait and to remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU). The Iranian proposal would not force Iran to make concessions regarding its HEU or ability to enrich uranium up front, but would rather grant Iran more time to engage in talks about these nuclear issues. It is unclear if Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, which ISW-CTP continues to assess dominates Iranian decision-making, support this new proposal. One source with knowledge on the topic told Axios on April 27 that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Pakistani, Egyptian, Turkish, and Qatari mediators in recent days that there is no consensus among Iran’s leaders on how to address US demands.
Iran’s rapidly depleting oil storage capacity likely explains, at least in part, why Iran is pushing for a peace agreement that would lift the US naval blockade. The Wall Street Journal reported on April 27 that the US blockade on Iranian ports has forced Iran to store oil in “disused oil tanks in poor condition” and in “containers” in the cities of Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province, and Asaluyeh, Bushehr Province, according to unspecified current and former Iranian officials.[6] Hamid Hosseini, the spokesperson for Iran’s oil exporting union, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran is trying to send its oil to China by rail. The Wall Street Journal noted that most exporters avoid transporting oil by rail because rail shipments are less efficient and less profitable than seaborne shipments, however. The Wall Street Journal’s April 27 report is consistent with a prior April 12 estimate from a US sanctions analyst that Iran had roughly 13 days of onshore storage capacity remaining before it would be forced to shut down oil production. ISW-CTP is unable to independently assess the exact status of Iran’s onshore and offshore storage capacity. Any shutdown of Iranian oil wells could cause permanent reservoir damage, however, which would affect Iran’s ability to produce its most valuable export.
An Iranian delegation led by Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the importance of Russo-Iranian strategic relations in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27. This meeting notably occurs as Iran prepares for a potential resumption of conflict with the United States and Israel. Russia has facilitated Iranian strikes in the Middle East throughout the war, such as by providing Iran with satellite imagery of US, Gulf, and Turkish military assets in the Middle East.
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