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Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war. Iran’s principal positive strategic objective at this time is to secure recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would fundamentally remake regional and global maritime norms in a manner extremely detrimental to US interests. Iran has denied access to the Strait of Hormuz during the war through mining, drone and missile attacks, and harassment by fast attack craft. Sea denial of the Strait of Hormuz can only be maintained through attacks, however. Long-term control of the Strait would require Iran to secure US recognition of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz through a negotiated agreement so that Iran could order ships to comply with its rules legitimately and then intercept those ships that fail to comply. Iranian negotiators increasingly prioritized securing its control over the Strait in negotiations, likely because it believes Iranian control over the Strait would act as a safeguard against future wars between Iran and Israel and the United States. The Strait under recognized Iranian control would act as a safeguard because Iran could close the Strait and disrupt markets at will, punish states in the Persian Gulf region for “collaborating” with Israel or the United States, and generate revenue through a system of tolls. All of this and more would become legitimate with US recognition of Iranian claims to the Strait if the United States agreed to Iran’s demands in negotiations. Recognition would also provide Iran with the legitimacy to intercept ships violating its rules. US, Israeli, or Gulf efforts to disrupt Iranian efforts to manage traffic to Tehran’s benefit would be perceived as acts of aggression if the United States were to recognize Iranian claims to the Strait in negotiations.
Iran has already begun to take steps that demonstrate what these new norms could look like. Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” also sent an email on May 6 to shipping companies with vessels in the Persian Gulf stipulating that for safe passage through, crews must pay the body in Iranian rials and gain issuances of guarantees from Iranian banks, which would force everyone who wants to use the Strait to violate US sanctions. These demands would be legitimate if Iran achieves its positive strategic aim of securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. The email makes it clear that countries whose ships want to go through the Strait have to lift sanctions.
Iran is also seeking economic relief as a positive objective from the war, which could enable Iran to accelerate its efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile program. US sanctions on Iranian oil have contributed to severely weakening Iran’s ability to raise revenue that the regime has used to fund the development of its ballistic missile program. Iran is also seeking for the United States to unfreeze nearly $100 billion USD in Iranian assets, which could quickly provide the regime with the needed funds for investment into reconstituting its ballistic missile program on the strategic level. These funds would be needed to rebuild missile production plants, development facilities, and plants for raw materials like steel, many of which were destroyed during the current war. Iran has used its ballistic missiles to attack US bases and allies in the recent conflict and in previous conflicts like the 12 Day War. CNN reported on May 6 that Israel is particularly worried about the possible lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and has pushed for restrictions to be imposed on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Economic relief would also support ”negative” strategic objectives like preventing regime collapse caused by protests that result from serious economic instability.
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