|
Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy. Putin claimed on May 15 that the Russian government’s economic measures began to generate “restrained, but still positive results” in March 2026. Putin claimed that Russian wholesale trade increased by eight percent in March 2025, that retail trade increased by 6.2 percent, that industrial production increased by 2.3 percent, and that manufacturing increased by three percent. Putin claimed that Russia’s GDP grew by 1.8 percent in March and that unemployment remained low at 2.2 percent. Russian independent source The Bell noted that Putin did not mention that data from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development showed that Russian year-on-year GDP declined in January and February 2026, nor that the ministry decreased its annual GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3 percent to 0.4 percent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv City for possible future strikes. Zelensky stated on May 15 that Ukrainian intelligence obtained Russian documents outlining plans for strikes against roughly 20 political and military facilities that high-ranking Ukrainian officials frequent. Zelensky published reconnaissance photos from early March 2026, reportedly from the Russian plans of an underground tunnel, a presidential administration building, and a presidential residence in and near Kyiv City. Zelensky reported that Russian authorities have been forming the plans for a “long time” but have been more actively reconnoitering possible targets since the start of the Iran conflict – likely in order to take advantage of Ukraine’s Patriot interceptor shortages. The Kremlin threatened to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv City if Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow City on May 9, and Zelensky’s report suggests that Moscow has not abandoned its plans for such strikes in the future, even as the ceasefire has passed.
Sanctions relief for Russia, particularly when coupled with the slowing supplies of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, would increase the already significant threat that Russian missile strikes pose to Ukraine. Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladyslav Vlasyuk stated on May 15 that Russia produced the Kh-101 cruise missiles that it used in the May 14 strike series in the second quarter of 2026, indicating that Russian forces are launching missiles almost immediately after production and are not stockpiling missiles. Vlasyuk stated that the Russian missiles still use a significant number of Western components, including those manufactured in late 2025 and early 2026, despite ongoing sanctions. Vlasyuk highlighted, however, how US efforts to stop supplies of Western artificial intelligence (AI) modules to Russia have likely prevented Russia from widely using AI in its Shahed drones. Ukrainian source Militarnyi similarly reported on May 14 that ballistic missile debris from late 2025 and early 2026 showed that Russia was launching recently produced missiles.
|
