[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 9월 16일

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핵심 요약:

  • 9월 16일, 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴은 러시아-벨라루스 연합 군사 훈련인 자파드-2025의 마지막 날을 감독했습니다.
  • 우크라이나의 지속적인 장거리 타격 캠페인은 러시아의 주요 에너지 인프라를 목표로 하며, 러시아의 석유 및 가솔린 시장을 계속해서 약화시키고 있습니다. 이는 러시아가 우크라이나 전쟁 자금을 조달하는 장기적인 능력에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 우크라이나는 비용 효율성을 유지하면서 점점 더 정교한 인공 지능(AI) 기술을 갖춘 드론을 혁신하고 배치하는 능력을 지속적으로 보여주고 있으며, 이는 우크라이나 드론의 효과를 크게 증대시키고 있습니다.
  • 벨라루스 대통령 알렉산드르 루카셴코는 러시아가 폴란드 영공을 침범한 최근 사건에서 수사적으로 거리를 두며, 벨라루스가 사실상 러시아의 대 우크라이나 전쟁의 공동 교전국이라는 사실을 모호하게 만들려고 시도하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 쿠피얀스크 인근, 코스티안티니우카-드루지키우카 전술 지역, 그리고 자포리자주 동부에서 진격했습니다.

최신 자료 및 링크 (최신 업데이트 확인):

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[원문]

Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16.

September 16, 2025

Information Cutoff: 6:45 pm ET

Olivia Gibson, Angelica Evans, Jennie Olmsted, Christina Harward, Daria Novikov, Ian Matthews, and George Barros

TOPLINES

Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16. Putin, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, and Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin visited the Mulino Training Ground in Nizhniy Novgorod Oblast and inspected the troops participating in Zapad-2025. Belousov reported that personnel from Russia’s Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD/MMD), Aerospace Forces (VKS), Airborne (VDV) Forces, and Northern and Baltic fleets and Belarusian elements as part of the Union State’s combined Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) participated in Zapad-2025. Putin stated that 100,000 military personnel participated in the exercises, including military personnel from six additional countries. Putin later met with personnel from Bangladesh, India, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and Iran. India announced on September 9 that it sent 65 military personnel to the Mulino Training Ground to participate in Zapad-2025 to enhance military cooperation and exchange information about combat tactics with Russia and Belarus. This is India’s second time participating in the joint exercises, after 200 Indian personnel participated in counterterrorism operations during the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2021 joint exercises in September 2021. Putin notably wore a military uniform to observe the exercises – the second time Putin has worn a military uniform at a public event since the beginning of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin first wore a military uniform during the full-scale invasion while visiting Kursk Oblast in March 2025, and ISW assessed at that time that Putin was likely trying to portray himself as an engaged wartime leader and to share the credit for Russian forces retaking territory in Kursk Oblast. Putin likely attended the September 16 exercises in a military uniform in order to posture Russian-Belarusian military strength against the backdrop of recent Kremlin kinetic and rhetorical escalation against NATO states neighboring Russia, such as Poland and Norway, and repeated Russian threats against the Baltic states and Finland.

Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 16 that Ukraine’s Special Operation Forces (SOF), alongside unspecified Ukrainian forces, conducted a drone strike against the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov Oblast, resulting in several explosions and a fire. The Saratov refinery specializes in gasoline, diesel fuel, and oil fuel production and other oil products; it has a 4.8-million-ton production capacity; and supplies the Russian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are conducting a battle damage assessment.

Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness. Ukrainian outlet United24 Media reported on September 15 that Ukrainian drone producer Vyriy and Ukrainian defense technology company The Fourth Law (TFL) are launching mass production of Vyriy-10 first-person view (FPV) drones. United24 Media reported that Vyriy equipped the Vyriy-10 drones with TFL’s TFL-1 terminal guidance module, an advanced AI guidance system that will enable drone operators to execute more precise strikes and navigate environments with pervasive electronic warfare (EW). TFL Head Yaroslav Azhnyuk stated that several Ukrainian units have leveraged the modified Vyriy-10 drones to increase drone strike effectiveness by two to four times. United24 Media noted that the drones cost approximately $448, making it only slightly more expensive than traditional Ukrainian-made FPV drones. The integration of Ukrainian drones with AI guidance systems represents a significant technological advancement that will enable Ukrainian drone operators to conduct more accurate strikes and bypass frontline Russian EW to strike targets in the Russian near rear.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16.

  • Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

  • Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness.

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to rhetorically distance himself from Russia’s recent incursion into Polish airspace in an attempt to obfuscate the fact that Belarus is de facto a cobelligerent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.



  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

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