|
Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy. Bloomberg reported on September 20 that undisclosed people close to the Kremlin stated that Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way for Russia to force Ukraine into peace negotiations on Putin’s terms. The sources stated that Putin assesses that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to “do much” to bolster Ukraine’s defense and that the US-Russian talks in Alaska on August 15, 2025, convinced Putin that Trump has no interest in intervening in the war in Ukraine. The sources stated that Putin intends to remain engaged in any ongoing bilateral dialogue with the United States but will continue to act in what he perceives to be Russia’s interest. The sources stated that Putin intends to continue targeting Ukraine’s energy network and other critical infrastructure. Putin’s long-standing theory of victory posits that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine by indefinitely maintaining the theater-wide initiative and outlasting Western military support for Ukraine. The sources’ statements indicate that recent US efforts to mediate a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine have not impacted Putin’s calculus and that Putin remains committed to defeating Ukraine militarily, as ISW has continued to assess. Putin’s recent actions — including the decision to redeploy more forces to Donetsk Oblast and recent Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO member states — further underscore his commitment to both continued military aggression against Ukraine and future military aggression against NATO member states.
Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026. The Kremlin maintains a tight grip on the Russian information space and holds significant influence over most Russian officials and insiders, which suggests that Putin may have orchestrated or at least approved of sources in the Kremlin leaking information to a Western publication. The Kremlin sources’ emphasis on the Trump Administration’s reported failure to influence Putin’s decision making is likely an attempt to seize on friction between US and European officials and to sow further discord between Western allies. The Kremlin has long sought to divide Ukraine’s US and European supporters in order to weaken cohesive Western support for Ukraine and has intensified this campaign since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
Putin likely also intends for this article to feed into the Kremlin’s long-running narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that Putin can bring about a Russian victory in Ukraine seemingly by will alone. The Kremlin sources’ emphasis on Putin’s commitment to a military victory in Ukraine ignores the Russian military’s systemic shortcomings and limitations that have thus far denied Putin’s ability to achieve Russia’s strategic objectives of politically controlling all of Ukraine, or decisively winning on the battlefield. ISW has repeatedly observed instances of Putin tasking the Russian military with goals far beyond its capabilities, and it is unclear whether Putin is receiving inaccurate information about Russian military capabilities or whether Putin is choosing to ignore Russia’s limitations and push on with grinding offensives to further Russian narratives about Russia’s ability to wage war indefinitely, no matter the costs. ISW continues to assess that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine, the United States, and European states maintain agency over the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
|
