September 30, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Ben Rezaei, Zahra Wakilzada, Ben Schmida, Carolyn Moorman, Adham Fattah, Avery Borens, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter

Senior Iranian officials appear to be preparing for potential military conflict. Iranian officials continue to believe that the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran will collapse and fighting will resume at some point in the future. Iranian Deputy Interior Minister for Security and Law Enforcement and National Security Council (NSC) Secretary Ali Akbar Pour Jamshidian stated on September 27 that the Supreme National Security Council (SCNC) had directed all Iranian military and civilian officials to designate several successors to ensure continuity of governance in the event of leadership disruption. Pour Jamshidian added that the Interior Ministry adopted the same decision and designated several individuals, down to provincial governors, as successors within the Interior Ministry. The SNSC rejected Pour Jamshidian’s statement on September 27 and denied holding any meeting on this issue. The SNSC likely pursued succession planning as a part of the Iranian government’s attempts to amend issues it faced during the 12-day war, including those posed by the Israeli decapitation campaign that targeted senior Iranian officials. Israeli strikes destroyed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force command bunker on June 13 and killed senior IRGC commanders. The death of these commanders disrupted Iran’s command-and-control and made responding to Israeli attacks extremely difficult. The SNSC’s succession planning also comes after Khamenei’s absence during the war, which prevented his principal subordinates from reaching him for rapid decisions. Khamenei also reportedly named three senior clerics as potential successors during the war and directed the Iranian Assembly of Experts to choose from those clerics to ensure an orderly wartime transition. The rare decision to take steps to ensure a smooth succession suggests that senior officials have already considered succession plans, even before the SNSC’s reported order.

Senior Iranian military commanders also continue to inspect military and air defense units across Iran. Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard inspected the Dezful Air Defense Group on September 29 and assessed its combat readiness. Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi separately inspected Artesh and IRGC naval, commando, and aviation units in Hormozgan Province on September 30. Mousavi assessed the capabilities of different units, met with commanders and personnel, and emphasized that both navies have achieved full readiness ”for a possible future conflict.”

• Iranian Succession Planning: Senior Iranian officials appear to be preparing for potential military conflict. Iranian officials continue to believe that the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran will collapse and fighting will resume at some point in the future. Senior Iranian military commanders also continue to inspect military and air defense units across Iran.

• Iranian Water and Energy Crisis: Iran’s worsening water and energy crisis could gradually increase the Iranian public’s frustrations with the regime and compound existing challenges to regime legitimacy. The Karaj Dam’s water reserves decreased from 111 million cubic meters to 28 million cubic meters between September 2024 and September 2025, making the dam incapable of generating electricity for Tehran.

• Iraqi Airspace Superiority: Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji said on September 30 that Iraq would take “all necessary measures” to prevent Israel from using Iraqi airspace to attack Iran, during a meeting with Iranian Armed Forces Intelligence head Brigadier General Sayyed Majid Mirahmadi in Baghdad. Iranian-backed Iraqi politicians and militia figures have long called on the Iraqi federal government to adopt policies that would restrict the United States and Israel’s ability to fly through Iraqi airspace.

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