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Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Hanzha reported on April 7 that Russian forces conducted an FPV drone strike against a city bus in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at least four civilians and injuring at least 24 others. Hanzha later reported on April 7 that Russian forces conducted another strike against a civilian bus in Chervonohryhorivka Hromada (east of Nikopol), injuring at least five civilians. Russian forces have been routinely striking civilian targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since February 2022, with the most recent instances including a drone strike against a market in Nikopol on April 4 that killed five civilians and injured 28 others. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces pervasively employ human safari tactics — the deliberate tactic of using FPV drones to search for and strike civilian targets — in southern Ukraine using tactical drones, especially FPV drones, to strike civilians and civilian infrastructure. Russian forces have also integrated intentional civilian harm into their wider operation battlefield air interdiction (BAI) template by using FPVs to strike mainly civilian targets in the Ukrainian near rear in order to stop all use of given roads. Traditional BAI focuses strikes on military objects and dual-use infrastructure but does not specifically target civilian objects. The intentional use of civilian harm as a tool of war is a war crime.
The Kremlin continues to set conditions for possible future aggression against the Baltic states. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova announced on April 7 that the Russian government issued a warning to the Baltic states regarding their alleged decision to allow Ukrainian drones to operate in their airspace. Zakharova threatened that Russia will take unspecified “retaliatory measures” if the Baltic states fail to heed Russia’s warning. Russian State Duma deputies also accused the Baltic states of committing acts of aggression against Russia by being “complicit” in Ukrainian drone operations against Russia and claimed that Russian forces will destroy any alleged Ukrainian drones over Baltic airspace and may impose unspecified “blockades” on the Baltic states. The Kremlin may be setting conditions to use these allegations as the basis for military action in the airspace over one or more of the Baltic states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s willingness to conduct a ceasefire over the Easter holiday and/or a ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes. Zelensky stated on April 6 that Ukraine is prepared to halt strikes against Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocates and reiterated his offer for a temporary ceasefire for the Easter holidays (likely the Orthodox Easter on April 12), including specifically a moratorium against strikes on energy infrastructure. Zelensky stated that the US has already given Ukraine’s proposal to Russia and that the US is working with Ukraine on formalizing security guarantees that would accompany the energy infrastructure strikes moratorium. Zelensky continues to offer concessions and demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to make meaningful compromises. Russian officials have, in stark contrast, continuously rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals, including Zelensky’s recent Easter ceasefire proposal, and it is highly unlikely Russia will accept Zelensky’s energy ceasefire offer.
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