May 19, 2026

Data Cutoff: May 18, 2026

Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute and Alfred Han of the Institute for the Study of War

The South Korean government is considering “phased” participation in the United States-led multinational operation “Maritime Freedom Construct” (MFC) after a South Korean investigation revealed on May 11 that an “external impact” caused an explosion on the civilian vessel Namu-ho in the Strait of Hormuz. Namu-ho is a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship operated by South Korean firm Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) in the Strait of Hormuz and anchored in the United Arab Emirates. The vessel sustained damage when two unidentified objects hit the ship, causing an explosion and fire, on May 4. A senior official from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on May 14 that the possibility of any actor other than Iran carrying out the attack is “low” and that South Korea would take “appropriate diplomatic offensive measures” against the party responsible once verification is complete.  US President Donald Trump on May 4 accused Iran of taking “shots” at nations not involved in the conflict and called on South Korea to join US operations. South Korea initially refrained from making a statement on the incident due to ongoing investigations but later condemned the attack and vowed to take corresponding measures after the investigation.

WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un is likely aiming to modernize the Korean People’s Army’s (KPA) force structure and training methods in line with battlefield developments North Korean forces have observed during the frontline Ukraine War. Kim summoned all commanding officers of KPA brigades and divisions on May 17, according to North Korean state media. Imagery released by North Korean state media shows that commanding officers from the rank of Sangjwa (roughly equivalent to a United States Army Colonel) to the rank of Vice Marshal (roughly equivalent to the rank of General in the United States Army) were present at the meeting. Personnel of the KPA Navy (KPAN) were also present at the meeting. North Korean state media reported that Kim emphasized the role of combined arms unit commanders in facilitating training for modern combat and outlined an unspecified plan to accelerate KPA training to keep up with advances in North Korean military equipment. Kim also called on KPA commanders to implement unspecified organizational and technological changes and emphasized the need to update the KPA’s operational concepts in line with changing military technology.

The United States and the PRC appear to have conflicting views on North Korean denuclearization. The White House released a fact sheet following the May 13 to 15 meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping that reported that the two discussed the North Korean nuclear issue and “confirmed their shared goal to denuclearize North Korea.” Washington has not yet disclosed further details of the conversation. United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noted on May 18 that the United States will release a comprehensive fact sheet on the content of the meetings, including the denuclearization objectives for the Korean Peninsula, within days. Trump stated on May 15 that he remains in contact with WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un and maintains a “very good relationship” with Kim. The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported in its May 14 summit readout that Trump and Xi discussed “regional issues” including the situation on the Korean Peninsula but did not specifically mention denuclearization. PRC MFA spokesperson Guo Jiakun avoided the term “denuclearization” on May 18 when responding to the White House fact sheet, stating only that “China’s position and policy maintain continuity and consistency.”

• South Korea is considering “phased” participation in the US-led operations in the Strait of Hormuz, following an investigation into an explosion on the civilian vessel Namu-ho, which revealed that the explosion was caused by an “external impact.” South Korea may pursue a range of responses supporting US operations in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran’s culpability for the explosion is confirmed. 

• WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un is likely aiming to modernize KPA force structure, training, and operations to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. Kim is likely to work towards integrating unmanned systems into KPA warfighting practices, though it is unclear to what extent North Korea will deviate from its historical emphasis on mass and concentrated firepower. 

• The United States and PRC appeared to convey conflicting views on the necessity of North Korean denuclearization during the Trump-Xi summit. The PRC is likely providing tacit acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear program to improve North Korea-PRC relations.

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