[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 9월 1일

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주요 내용 (Key Takeaways)

주요 내용 (Key Takeaways)

  • 크렘린 관계자들은 가까운 시일 내에 우크라이나-러시아 양자 회담 또는 미국-우크라이나-러시아 3자 회담의 가능성에 대한 백악관 발표를 계속 부인하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴은 우크라이나의 완전한 항복에 대한 확고한 요구에 타협할 의사가 없음을 계속 보여주고 있습니다.
  • 크렘린은 푸틴의 우크라이나 정권 교체 요구에 정당성을 부여하기 위해, 우크라이나 전 대통령 빅토르 야누코비치의 영상 연설 공개 시점을 푸틴의 SCO 연설과 일치시켰을 가능성이 높습니다. (SCO: 상하이 협력 기구)
  • 푸틴의 SCO 연설에서 정권 교체 요구는 새로운 것이 아니라, 전쟁 전부터 전쟁 기간 내내 추구해온 요구사항의 반복입니다.
  • 러시아 군 지휘부는 비교적 “정예” 해군 보병 및 공수부대(VDV) 병력을 북부 수미주와 헤르손 방향에서 도네츠크주로 재배치한 것으로 알려졌습니다.
  • 보고된 재배치는 러시아의 2025년 가을 공세가 도네츠크주의 나머지 지역, 특히 도브로필랴, 포크로우스크, 코스티안티니우카 지역을 점령하는 데 초점을 맞출 것임을 시사합니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크

다음 자료들은 위에 언급된 내용과 관련이 있으며, 최신 정보 및 분석을 제공합니다.
(주의: 링크의 내용은 변경될 수 있으며, 실제 정보와 차이가 있을 수 있습니다.)

참고: 상기 링크는 정보 제공 목적으로 제공되며, 링크된 웹사이트의 내용은 변경될 수 있습니다. 최신 정보를 확인하기 위해 여러 출처를 참고하는 것이 좋습니다.

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[원문]

Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future.

September 1, 2025

Information Cutoff: 12:45 pm ET

Jessica Sobieski, Christina Harward, Jennie Olmsted, Justin Young, Olivia Gibson, and George Barros

TOPLINES

Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated on September 1 that “there was no agreement” on a bilateral meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, or a trilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump, Zelensky, and Putin. Ushakov stated on August 16, after the US-Russian Alaska summit, that he did not know when Trump and Putin would meet again and that the leaders had not discussed the prospect of a trilateral meeting. US President Donald Trump stated on August 18, however, that he was planning a bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin with a subsequent meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin. Ushakov’s reiteration of Russia’s refusal to commit to Trump’s desired bilateral and trilateral meetings undermines Trump’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to achieve a peace settlement in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate his unwillingness to compromise on his unwavering demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation. Putin claimed on September 1 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, People’s Republic of China (PRC), that the “crisis” in Ukraine arose from the Western-provoked "coup” in Ukraine in 2014 (referring to Ukraine’s democratically organized Revolution of Dignity), not "as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine." Putin also claimed that the war in Ukraine stemmed from the West’s constant attempts to bring Ukraine into NATO, which Putin claimed would pose a direct threat to Russian security. Putin claimed that the 2014 "coup" eliminated the political leadership of Ukraine that did not support Ukrainian membership in NATO. Putin claimed that peace in Ukraine can only be sustainable and long-term if the settlement eliminates the ”root causes” of the war, which Kremlin officials have repeatedly defined as Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in Ukraine and NATO expansion.

The Kremlin likely timed the publication of a video address by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to coincide with Putin’s SCO speech in order to lend legitimacy to Putin’s demand for regime change in Ukraine. Russian state media published a video message on September 1 of Yanukovych claiming that he worked to bring Ukraine closer to the EU during his presidency and that his ultimate goal was Ukraine’s EU accession. Yanukovych blamed Ukraine’s EU partners for behaving "incorrectly" during Ukrainian-EU negotiations and criticized the EU for not understanding the difficulties of Ukraine’s economic situation. Yanukovych also claimed that he has always opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which he alleged would have been a "catastrophe" and "a direct road to civil war." Yanukovych’s last public media appearance was in July 2022, when he called on Ukrainians to surrender to Russia. The timing of the filming of Yanukovych’s video address is unknown, but he opened by stating that Putin "is absolutely correct" – seemingly in response to Putin’s remarks about Ukraine at the SCO summit, indicating this was likely a choreographed information effort. The publication of Yanukovych’s video on Russian state media was likely intentionally timed to coincide with Putin’s remarks.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Kremlin officials continue to deny White House statements about the prospect of a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian or trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian meeting in the near future.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate his unwillingness to compromise on his unwavering demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation.

  • The Kremlin likely timed the publication of a video address by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to coincide with Putin’s SCO speech in order to lend legitimacy to Putin’s demand for regime change in Ukraine.

  • Putin’s demands for regime change in his SCO speech are not new, but rather the reiteration of his pre-war demands that he has been pursuing throughout the war.

  • The Russian military command reportedly redeployed relatively "elite" naval infantry and airborne (VDV) forces to Donetsk Oblast from northern Sumy Oblast and the Kherson direction.

  • The reported redeployments suggest that the Russian Fall 2025 offensive will focus on efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka areas.

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