[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 9월 16일

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주요 내용 요약

  • 시리아-이스라엘 협상: 진행 중인 시리아-이스라엘 안보 협상 관련 소식통에 따르면, 미국의 압력에도 불구하고 양국 간의 안보 협정 체결 가능성은 현재 매우 낮습니다. 로이터 통신은 9월 16일, 미국이 시리아 과도 정부에 9월 23일 유엔 총회 전에 이스라엘과의 제한적인 안보 협정을 위한 협상을 가속화하도록 압력을 가하고 있다고 보도했습니다.
  • 이란과 걸프: 이란 최고 국가 안보 평의회 서기 알리 라리자니는 9월 16일 리야드에서 사우디 고위 관계자들을 만났습니다. 이는 이스라엘의 9월 9일 도하 공습 이후 걸프 국가들이 미국이나 이스라엘과 협력하는 것을 저지하려는 이란의 광범위한 노력의 일환으로 보입니다. 라리자니는 사우디 왕세자 모하마드 빈 살만, 사우디 국방부 장관 칼리드 빈 살만 등 사우디 관계자들과 만나 “지역의 미래”와 경제 및 국방 협력에 대해 논의했습니다.
  • 중국의 이란산 원유 수입: 이란은 미국의 제재에 대응하고, 중국 원유 시장의 수요 요인에 대한 반응으로 중국에 대한 원유 수출에 더 큰 할인을 제공하고 있습니다.
  • 예멘 내 이스라엘 공습: 이스라엘 방위군 공군은 9월 16일, 후티 반군이 2025년 7월 이스라엘의 마지막 공습 이후 수리한 후다이다 항구의 후티 선적 인프라를 공격했습니다. 한 예멘 분석가는 이스라엘이 항구의 최근 수리된 부두 3곳을 공격했다고 보고했습니다.

참고: 위의 내용은 해당 문서의 주요 내용을 요약한 것입니다. 보다 자세한 내용은 원본 문서를 참고하시기 바랍니다.

최신 자료 및 관련 링크

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[원문]

Comments from sources involved in ongoing Syria-Israel security negotiations indicate that a security agreement between the two countries is currently very unlikely, despite US pressure.

September 16, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Ben Schmida, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Nidal Morrison, Adham Fattah, Carolyn Moorman, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter

TOPLINES

Comments from sources involved in ongoing Syria-Israel security negotiations indicate that a security agreement between the two countries is currently very unlikely, despite US pressure. Reuters reported on September 16 that the United States is pressuring the Syrian transitional government to accelerate negotiations with Israel for a limited security pact ahead of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 23. This limited security pact would reportedly not include Israel-Syria normalization. US pressure has not resolved fundamental challenges to the current negotiations, however. The Syrian transitional government seeks to reinstate the 1974 demilitarized buffer zone between the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and Syria, curb Israeli incursions and airstrikes in Syria, and secure an Israeli withdrawal from recently seized territory in southern Syria, according to nine sources involved in the talks. Syrian sources said the proposal for a security pact will not address the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which will be handled “in the future.”[3] US sources said that “even a modest agreement would be a feat” due to Israel’s hardened stance in negotiations. The US sources added that the Syrian transitional government is in a weakened position after intercommunal violence in Suwayda Province in July “inflamed calls for partition.” Unspecified sources said to Reuters that Israel would be reluctant to give up recently occupied Syrian territory, and an Israeli security source confirmed that “Israel is not offering much.” Israel’s negotiating position further narrows the prospect of a near-term security agreement due to the domestic political constraints that Shara faces. An Israeli source said Israel proposed to US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack that Israel would withdraw from southern Syria in exchange for Syria relinquishing its claim to the Golan Heights. Syrian sources said that President Ahmad al Shara has rejected this proposal since “any compromise on the Golan would mean the end of his rule.”

Unspecified gunmen attacked an Iranian security force vehicle on September 16 in Khash, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, killing two police officers and wounding another officer. The gunmen stopped the police vehicle on the Khash-Zahedan highway. The attackers’ identities and motives remain unknown, and no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack follows a series of recent Jaish al Adl attacks in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, however. Jaish al Adl is a Baloch, Salafi-jihadi militant group that frequently attacks Iranian security forces in southeastern Iran.

The United States sanctioned two Iranian financial facilitators and over a dozen Hong Kong- and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based individuals and entities on September 16 for funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and the Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry (MODAFL). The US Treasury Department stated on September 16 that two Iranian facilitators laundered more than $100 million in oil revenue through cryptocurrency, front companies, and exchange houses to support Iran’s weapons programs and the Axis of Resistance.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Syria-Israel NegotiationsComments from sources involved in ongoing Syria-Israel security negotiations indicate that a security agreement between the two countries is currently very unlikely, despite US pressure. Reuters reported on September 16 that the United States is pressuring the Syrian transitional government to accelerate negotiations with Israel for a limited security pact ahead of the United Nations General Assembly on September 23.

  • Iran and the Gulf: Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani met with senior Saudi officials in Riyadh on September 16, likely as part of a broader Iranian effort to dissuade Gulf states from cooperating with the United States or Israel following Israel’s September 9 strike in Doha. Larijani met with Saudi officials, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, to discuss the “future of the region” and economic and defense cooperation.

  • Chinese Imports of Iranian Oil: Iran is offering wider discounts on its oil exports to China to counter US sanctions and in reaction to demand drivers in the Chinese oil market.



  • Israeli Strikes in Yemen: The Israel Defense Forces Air Force struck Houthi shipping infrastructure at Hudaydah Port on September 16, which the Houthis had repaired since the IDF’s last strikes on the port in July 2025. A Yemen analyst reported that Israel struck three recently repaired piers at the port.

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