September 24, 2025

Information Cutoff: 9 pm ET

Jennie Olmsted, Jessica Sobieski, Christina Harward, Justin Young, Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Ian Matthews, and Kateryna Stepanenko

The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account on September 23 to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement that Russia is prepared to continue to adhere to the nuclear arms limitations in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year after it expires on February 5, 2026. Medvedev stated that the Trump administration must now decide whether it will follow suit. Medvedev claimed that US adherence to the letter of the treaty “is not enough,” however, and that the United States “must give up on weakening Russia with sanctions and tariffs” or else “the risk of direct conflict remains high.” Medvedev’s veiled nuclear threats directly tie US agreement to stop all its economic measures targeting Russia—the main tool that the Trump administration is using to try to bring Putin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine—to Russia’s continued adherence to New START or readiness to agree to any future arms control treaties. Medvedev’s threats are part of wider Kremlin efforts to delay peace negotiations, use threats to secure Russia’s desired demands in Ukraine, secure concessions that benefit Russia, and deter the United States from supporting Ukraine.

Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly identified. Kremlin officials responded on September 24 directly and indirectly to Trump’s September 23 statement outlining Russia’s military shortcomings and economic turmoil. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Trump’s statement about how Russia’s poor economic situation makes Russia look like a “paper tiger,” claiming that Russia is “more closely associated with a bear” and that “there are no paper bears.” Peskov also explicitly rejected Trump’s assertion that Ukraine could retake territory with assistance from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Peskov claimed that Ukraine’s military position is significantly worse than in Spring 2022 and that US efforts to “encourage” Ukraine to continue military operations are “misguided." The Kremlin aims to convince Trump and the West that continuing to support Ukraine and oppose Russia is not viable and that the United States should instead allow Russia to continue its war unimpeded.

The Kremlin launched three distinct narratives in response to Trump’s September 23 statement: statements about the Kremlin’s continued commitment to its original war aims; claims that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable; and claims that the United States should focus on bilateral US-Russian economic relations. Peskov claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to the settlement process to end the war in Ukraine and that Trump “cannot help but see Putin’s openness to this process.” Peskov claimed that the “war is not aimless” but is meant to ensure Russia’s security and Russian interests and to eliminate the war’s “root causes.” The Kremlin has repeatedly defined the alleged root causes as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian speakers. The Kremlin often uses claims about the root causes to call for Ukraine and the West to give in to Russia’s original war aims. Peskov also provided excuses for Putin’s disinterest in participating in a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that a meeting without significant preparation would be a “public relations stunt doomed to fail.” Putin remains uninterested in good faith negotiations that require compromises and is instead making the same demands of Ukraine and the West as he did in late 2021 and February 2022.

• The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine.

• Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly identified.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law.

• Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on September 24 that Russian forces are adapting technological innovations and ground tactics in an attempt to restore maneuver to the battlefield.

• Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24.

• Ukrainian forces recently conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russia and occupied Crimea, including against Russian oil infrastructure and drone production facilities.

• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

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