September 29, 2025

Information Cutoff: 8:00 pm ET

Jennie Olmsted, Justin Young, Christina Harward, Daria Novikov, Ian Matthews, and George Barros 

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1. Russia holds two conscription cycles in the spring and fall every year, and Putin signed a decree on September 29 authorizing the Fall 2025 cycle, to conscript 135,000 Russian citizens between October 1 and December 31 for 12 months of mandatory military service outside of the active combat zone in Ukraine. Russia conscripted 134,500 Russians in Spring 2022 and 120,000 in Fall 2022; 147,000 in Spring 2023 and 130,000 in Fall 2023; and 150,000 in Spring 2024 and 133,000 in Fall 2024. The fall cycles have historically conscripted fewer Russians than those in the spring, but the number of conscripts has grown each season since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Deputy Chief of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the Russian General Staff Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky emphasized on September 22 that the upcoming conscription cycle is not related to the war in Ukraine. Tsimlyansky stated that conscripts will only serve on Russian territory and will not conduct tasks related to the war – meaning conscripts will also not serve in occupied Ukraine that Russia illegally defines as ”Russian territory.” Tsimlyansky stated that the Russian military command will start sending conscripts to assembly points on October 15 and that a third of the conscripts will receive specialized training in training units and at military bases. Russian law prohibits the deployment of conscripts to combat, and Russian forces have typically relied on conscripts for border security, including in Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk oblasts. Conscript border guards’ participation in combat during the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast caused particular discontent in Russian society. 

The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures. The Russian government submitted to the Russian State Duma on September 29 a draft budget for 2026-2028 that projects federal revenues in 2026 to be roughly 40.3 trillion rubles ($485 billion) and federal expenditures to be roughly 44.1 trillion rubles ($531 billion). The budget calls for 12.9 trillion rubles ($155 billion) to go towards “National Defense” expenditures in 2026 – a decrease from 13.5 trillion rubles ($163 billion) in 2025. The draft budget projects that defense spending will increase to 13.6 trillion rubles ($164 billion) in 2027 and then decrease to 13 trillion rubles ($156.5 billion) in 2028. The 2026 budget also calls for 3.9 trillion rubles ($47 billion) towards “National Security” – an increase from 3.5 trillion rubles ($42 billion) in 2025. Russia plans to commit roughly 38 percent of its expenditures in 2026 to combined “defense” and “security” expenses – a decrease from 41 percent in 2025. The budget allocates 58 billion rubles ($698 million) in 2026 to fund compensation payments and social benefits for servicemembers killed or wounded in action and their family members – a decrease from 78 billion rubles ($939 million) spent in 2025. The budget also allocated roughly 13.9 billion rubles ($167 million) in 2026 to fund the “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund,” which supports Russian veterans and their families – a decrease from the roughly 34.7 billion rubles ($418 million) spent in 2025. Russia is reducing its defense and security spending in 2026 by roughly 200 billion rubles ($2.4 billion) as compared to 2025, despite Russia’s ongoing economic struggles. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov claimed on September 18, for example, that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales funding the Russian federal budget to be about 20 to 22 percent in 2026, which Siluanov noted is a decrease from about 50 percent previously. The Kremlin recently announced an increase in value-added tax specifically to fund defense and security, which the Russian Finance Ministry estimated will generate about $14.2 billion in additional revenue in 2026.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1.



• The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures.

• The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access.

• US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory.

• Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.

• European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.

• The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days.

• Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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