US Vice President JD Vance criticized Russia’s rejection of American invitations to engage in bilateral or trilateral negotiations as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate their lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine. Vance stated on September 28 that Russia has “refused to sit down” in any bilateral meeting with Ukraine or a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and the United States over the last few weeks — in direct opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported agreement with US President Donald Trump on August 18 to hold a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Vance stated that Russia’s economy is “in shambles,” that Russia is making “little, if any,” gains on the battlefield, and that it is time for Russia to "actually talk seriously about peace.” Vance stated that the "reality on the ground" has changed, with Russia killing and losing a lot of people without “much to show for it.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on September 28 that Russia is open to starting negotiations to address the “root causes” of the war — which Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed are NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian speakers, among other things. Kremlin officials, including Lavrov, have consistently used “root causes” as shorthand to reiterate Russia’s original war demands, which Kremlin officials have continuously asserted Russia will achieve either militarily or diplomatically. ISW continues to assess that Russia remains unwilling to engage in good faith negotiations and is instead repeatedly demanding that Ukraine capitulate and acquiesce to Russia’s maximalist demands. Russian forces conducted the third largest combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 27 to 28 with 643 total projectiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Lipetsk Oblast; 38 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast; two drone-launched Banderol missiles from Kursk Oblast; and eight Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 593 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda and Kacha, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed a total of 611 projectiles, including 566 drones; two drone-launched Banderol missiles; 35 Kh-101 cruise missiles; and eight Kalibr cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five missiles and 31 drones struck 16 locations throughout Ukraine and that drone debris fell on 25 locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Russian drones and missiles primarily struck civilian infrastructure in Kyiv City and Oblast and Zaporizhia, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, and Odesa oblasts and that the strikes lasted over 12 hours. Zelensky reported that Russian strikes on Kyiv City killed four civilians and injured at least 40, including children. Kyiv Oblast Military Administration Head Mykola Kalashnyk reported that Russian strikes on Kyiv City left over 2,500 civilians without gas and roughly 580 civilians without electricity. Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with at least eight missiles, injuring 42 civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure. Konotop City Mayor Artem Semenikhin reported that Russian forces appear to be adapting their drone strike tactics by circling Shahed-type drones over neighborhoods up to 12 times instead of striking immediately in order to terrify residents. Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command scrambled two fighter jets and put air defense on high alert on September 27 in response to Russia’s overnight strikes against Ukraine but did not report any violations of Polish airspace. ISW continues to assess that Russian strikes are increasingly and disproportionately impacting civilian areas in Russia’s significantly larger-scale strike packages of recent months and that such strikes underscore Ukraine’s need for continued supply of Western air defense systems, especially US-provided Patriot systems. | 
