[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 9월 27일

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핵심 내용:

  • 러시아 정유시설에 대한 우크라이나의 반복적인 공격으로 인해 러시아와 점령된 우크라이나에서 휘발유 부족 현상이 지속되고 있습니다.

  • 우크라이나의 서방 파트너들은 미국 무기 구매 등을 통해 우크라이나에 군사 원조를 계속 제공하고 있습니다.

  • 러시아 외무부(MFA) 대변인 마리아 자하로바는 9월 26일, 9월 9일부터 10일까지 있었던 폴란드 내 러시아 드론 침입과 9월 13일 루마니아 내 러시아 드론 침입에 대해 터무니없이 우크라이나를 비난했습니다.

  • 유럽 관계자들은 NATO 영공에서 활동하는 미확인 드론에 대해 계속 보고하고 있습니다.

  • 우크라이나군은 최근 북부 수미와 서부 자포리자주에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 최근 도브로필랴 전술 지역과 시베르스크, 포크로스크, 노보파블리우카 인근에서 진격했습니다.


최신 자료 및 관련 링크:

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[원문]

Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.

September 27, 2025

Information Cutoff: 4:30 pm ET

Anna Harvey, Jennie Olmsted, Justin Young, Angelica Evans, Jessica Sobieski, and Frederick W. Kagan

TOPLINES

Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Sources in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on September 27 that the SBU conducted a long-range drone strike against the Tyngovatovo Oil Pumping Station in Konar, Chuvash Republic, approximately 1,000 kilometers from the international border. The SBU sources stated that a drone struck the pumping station and caused a fire, suspending oil transportation through the facility. Chuvash Republic Head Oleg Nikolaev said on September 27 that Ukrainian forces attempted a drone strike against an oil pumping station near Konar and admitted that there is minor damage to the facility and that the facility suspended operations. On September 26, Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov called on Lipetsk Oblast residents to remain calm despite reports of fuel shortages in the oblast and claimed that the shortages are due to logistical difficulties in loading fuel from some refineries. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that Lipetsk Oblast residents are complaining about high prices for AI-95 gasoline and that prices reached approximately $3.70 a gallon. The Russian government has historically used subsidies to artificially depress and stabilize domestic gas prices, although recent Ukrainian drone strikes appear to be complicating this policy. The average cost of gasoline in Russia was approximately $2.15 per gallon in September 2023 and $2.40 per gallon in September 2024, and prices have largely stayed below $3.00 a gallon since February 2023. Astra reported that gas stations are starting to sell fuel with fuel cards and that some stations in Moscow, Leningrad, Ryazan, and several Far Eastern oblasts are limiting fuel purchases to 10- to 20-liter increments or are only selling diesel. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on September 27 that the Ukrainian strikes against the Russian oil industry are having limited though painful consequences and that fuel shortages are particularly severe in the Far East, frontline areas of Belgorod Oblast, and occupied Crimea, which is entirely reliant on external oil supplies. The milblogger claimed that gas prices are increasing significantly in Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov, Lipetsk, and Tula oblasts and Krasnodar and Stavropol krais.

Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons. The Estonian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on September 27 that Estonia will contribute 10 million euros (roughly $11.7 million) to Ukraine through NATO’s Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on September 27 that Israel supplied Ukraine with a Patriot system in August 2025 and that Ukraine will receive two Patriot air defense systems in Fall 2025.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.

  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.

  • Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova absurdly blamed Ukraine on September 26 for the September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion in Poland and the September 13 Russian drone incursion in Romania.

  • European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.

  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.

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