April 5, 2025

Data Cutoff: 1:30 PM ET

Justin Young, Anna Thacker, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

Ukrainian forces have intensified their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure within roughly the last two weeks (since the night of March 22 to 23), focusing on the Russian Baltic Sea port and oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast critical to Russian oil exports. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 5 that Ukrainian forces struck the major oil export port of Primorsk, Leningrad Oblast, overnight on April 4 to 5, starting a fire. The April 4 to 5 strike is the third Ukrainian strike against Primorsk within the last two weeks (previous strikes were overnight on March 22 to 23 and March 26 to 27). Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko acknowledged on April 5 the Ukrainian drone strike on Leningrad Oblast and reported damage to a section of an oil pipeline near Primorsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 5 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (roughly 1,000 kilometers from Primorsk) overnight, starting a fire. Geolocated footage published on April 5 shows Russian air defenses operating near the refinery in Kstovo. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data shows heat anomalies at the refinery in Kstovo at around 0200 local time on April 5. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor Gleb Nikitin acknowledged on April 5 the Ukrainian strikes against the industrial zone of Kstovsky Raion and reported damage and fires at two facilities of Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez in addition to damage at the Novogorkovskaya Combined Heating and Power Plant (CHPP) in Kstovo.

Russian milbloggers offered a muted response to recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries, noting the damage that the strikes have inflicted on Russia’s oil export capacity and that the damage will be costly and time-consuming to repair. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger focused mostly on the alleged Ukrainian strike against a Russian cargo vessel off occupied Kherson Oblast, noting that the Russian shipbuilding industry will struggle to replace losses from such strikes. A second Russian milblogger also speculated that Ukrainian forces are employing daytime drone strikes against Russian border regions to deplete Russian air defense munitions before employing long-range drones at low altitude for overnight strikes. Russian milbloggers may have refrained from direct criticism of the Kremlin’s lack of response to the strikes due to Russian authorities’ increasing censorship of Telegram in recent weeks, against the backdrop of prominent milbloggers’ criticism of the Russian forces’ battlefield situation. Russian milbloggers have previously complained about the Russian inability to repair damaged facilities due to parts sanctions and Russian air defense failures.

• Ukrainian forces have intensified their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure within roughly the last two weeks (since the night of March 22 to 23), focusing on the Russian Baltic Sea port and oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast critical to Russian oil exports. 

• The limitations of available Russian air defenses and the challenges inherent in protecting large infrastructure facilities across thousands of kilometers of distance are hindering the Kremlin’s efforts to defend against Ukrainian long-range strikes.

• Ukrainian counterattacks in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions continue to disrupt Russian efforts in the Pokrovsk direction and the Russian spring-summer offensive throughout the theater.

• Ukrainian counterattacks in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions continue to present the Russian military command with dilemmas that overstretched Russian forces appear challenged to meet.

• Russia continues to use gas grenades in frontline chemical weapons strikes — in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), of which Russia is a signatory.

• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.



• Russian forces launched 93 drones against Ukraine.

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