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The loss of two US aircraft does not indicate that the combined force has lost or is losing air superiority over Iran. Iranian forces shot down a US F-15E and an A-10 on April 3, marking the first such aircraft losses since the start of the conflict. The combined force has maintained air superiority over Iran since the first phase of the campaign by degrading Iranian air and air defense capabilities. Air superiority is when air power creates the conditions that allow one force to operate at “a given time and place without prohibitive interference from air and missile threats.” Achieving air superiority does not mean that there is no risk to aircraft, and air superiority is not constant at all times, in all places, or at all altitudes. Friendly forces can maintain air superiority even if the enemy is attempting to shoot down friendly aircraft, so long as the enemy air defenses do not seriously impede friendly operations. Iranian attempts to challenge US and Israeli air superiority have not seriously impeded the combined force’s ability to conduct operations over Iran, as demonstrated by the persistent strikes nationwide.
China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it. The Telegraph reported that five shipments of likely sodium perchlorate, a key precursor for solid missile propellant, have arrived in Iran from China. All the vessels are owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line Group (IRISL), which the United States sanctioned in 2021. Four of the vessels are docked or floating near the port in Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, and one of the vessels is docked or near Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence. China has previously supplied sodium perchlorate to support Iran’s ballistic missile program. The combined force has targeted several elements of the Iranian ballistic missile program, including missile fuel and solid propellant motor production sites. China’s efforts to help Iran reconstitute could undermine the combined force efforts to degrade or destroy the supporting elements of the ballistic missile program, however.
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