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North Korea will likely significantly expand its arsenal of nuclear warheads in the next decade. This expansion could force the United States and South Korea to reevaluate their ability to intercept a North Korean nuclear attack or neutralize the nuclear threat through preemptive strikes. Bloomberg reported on April 28 that, based on a January statement from South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, North Korea can produce enough fissile material for as many as 20 nuclear warheads annually. This production rate would allow North Korea to field 290 nuclear warheads by 2035, an equivalent nuclear arsenal to France, the world’s fourth-largest nuclear power by warhead count. ISW-CDOT has previously assessed that North Korea is likely increasing its nuclear warhead production capacity through expanded enrichment facilities.
Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) General Secretary Kim Jong Un tasked North Korea’s nuclear program with developing large nuclear warheads capable of threatening the United States and smaller tactical nuclear warheads to deter South Korea during the 9th Party Congress in February. Expanding the production of fissile material needed for nuclear warheads is a critical step towards achieving this goal. An annual production of fissile material for 20 nuclear warheads would likely allow North Korea to enhance the survivability of its nuclear deterrent by ensuring it does not rest solely on a handful of critical systems. North Korea could also use an increased fissile material production rate to improve its ability to threaten the United States with long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). North Korean ICBMs can already reach the US mainland, but it is unclear if North Korea can currently field them at a sufficient scale to penetrate US missile defenses. Advances in fissile material production capacity could allow North Korea to pursue both a more survivable and more threatening nuclear armament that can deter its regional adversaries and the United States.
Russian regional authorities are seeking to increase economic cooperation with North Korea, which may support the development of the Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and North Korean efforts to diversify trade relations beyond the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The government of Primorsky Krai, a Russian region bordering North Korea across the Tumen River, announced plans on April 30 to establish a working group to expand commerce with North Korea. Seoul-based media outlet NK News reported that the working group would support Russian businesses entering the North Korean market and increasing export volumes. The group listed shipments of organic fertilizers and fish products as export priorities. NK News separately reported that multiple Russian businesses have expanded exports and launched joint ventures with North Korea since 2025, including plans to launch a joint plastics factory in Vladivostok and North Korean construction of a meat-processing plant in Russia.
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