[ISW] 이란 업데이트 특별 보고서, 2026년 5월 9일

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핵심 내용:

  • 러시아, 휴전 기간 동안 이란의 군사력 재건 지원: 러시아는 휴전 기간 동안 이란의 군사력 재건 노력을 지원하고 있습니다. 미국 관리에 따르면, 러시아는 카스피해를 통해 이란에 드론 부품을 보내 전쟁 이후 이란의 공격 능력을 복구하는 것을 돕고 있습니다. 이러한 러시아의 드론 부품 공급은 이란이 미국 및 이스라엘과의 잠재적인 분쟁 재개를 앞두고 미사일 및 드론 능력을 복원하려는 광범위한 노력을 뒷받침합니다.
  • 러시아와 중국의 이란 지원: 러시아와 중화인민공화국(PRC)은 전쟁 중 이란의 미국 기지 공격을 지원했습니다. 두 국가는 전쟁 중 이란에 미국 및 동맹 기지에 대한 위성 이미지를 제공했습니다.
  • 이란의 협상 지연 및 군사력 증강: 이란은 미국의 최신 제안에 아직 응답하지 않았으며, 협상 지연을 통해 군사력을 계속 재건할 가능성이 높습니다. 5월 9일, 이란 외무부 대변인 에스마일 바가에이는 이란이 여전히 미국의 제안을 검토 중이며 “마감 기한에 주의를 기울이지 않을 것”이라고 밝혔습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

  • (영문) Council on Foreign Relations – Iran (CFR): 이란과 관련된 다양한 이슈, 외교 정책, 군사력 등을 다루는 CFR의 전문 자료입니다. (최신 자료 업데이트 확인 요망)
  • (영문) Reuters – Iran building drones for Russia: US intelligence: 로이터 통신 기사로, 이란이 러시아를 위해 드론을 제작하고 있다는 미국 정보 당국의 내용을 담고 있습니다. (최신 자료 업데이트 확인 요망)
  • (영문) U.S. Department of State – Iran: 미국 국무부의 이란 관련 공식 페이지로, 미국의 대(對) 이란 정책, 제재, 외교 관계 등에 대한 최신 정보를 제공합니다. (최신 자료 업데이트 확인 요망)
  • (영문) Atlantic Council – IranSource: 애틀랜틱 카운슬의 이란 관련 전문 자료로, 이란의 정치, 경제, 안보 상황에 대한 분석을 제공합니다. (최신 자료 업데이트 확인 요망)

주의: 제시된 링크들은 현재 시점에서 유효하며, 최신 정보를 제공하는 자료들을 포함하고 있습니다. 자료의 내용은 시간이 지남에 따라 변동될 수 있으므로, 각 링크를 방문하여 최신 정보를 확인하는 것이 중요합니다.

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[원문]

Russia is supporting Iranian efforts to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities during the ceasefire period.

May 9, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Ben Schmida, Parker Hempel, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld

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TOPLINES

Russia is supporting Iranian efforts to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities during the ceasefire period. The New York Times, citing US officials, reported that Russia is sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help Iran rebuild its offensive capabilities following the war. Iran and Russia have historically used the Caspian Sea to trade non-military and military goods. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck Bandar Anzali Port along the Caspian Sea during the war to disrupt Russian shipments of military equipment, including Shahed drones, artillery shells, and other ammunition, to Iran. This report comes amid reports that Russia proposed giving Iran 5,000 short-range fiber-optic drones and an unspecified number of longer-range satellite-guided drones equipped with Starlink terminals. There is no evidence that the drone components Russia is providing to Iran during the ceasefire are related to fiber-optic or first-person view drones, however. Russian shipments of drone components to Iran support Iran’s broader effort to restore its missile and drone capabilities ahead of a potential resumption of conflict with the United States and Israel. Iran is attempting to recover weapons systems and launchers that it hid underground or that were buried under debris due to US and Israeli airstrikes. Iran would likely use weapons systems and launchers that it retrieves to resume retaliatory attacks against US forces and regional countries if conflict resumes.

Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) also supported Iranian attacks on US bases during the war. The US State Department sanctioned four entities on May 8, including several Chinese companies, for providing satellite imagery to Iran to support Iranian attacks against US forces in the region during the war. The sanctioned entities include Earth Eye and Chang Guand Satellite Technology, which are both based in the PRC and supplied Iran with satellite imagery of US and allied military facilities in the region. Western media previously reported that Iran used an Earth Eye TEE-01B reconnaissance satellite that it acquired from the PRC in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East during the war. Russia similarly provided Iran with satellite imagery of US facilities and Shahed drones to support Iranian attacks during the war.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russia is supporting Iranian efforts to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities during the ceasefire period. Russia is reportedly sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help Iran rebuild its offensive capabilities following the war, according to US officials. Russian shipments of drone components to Iran support Iran’s broader effort to restore its missile and drone capabilities ahead of a potential resumption of conflict with the United States and Israel.

  • Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) also supported Iranian attacks on US bases during the war. Russia and the PRC both provided Iran with satellite imagery of US and allied bases during the war.



  • Iran has not yet responded to the latest US proposal and will likely use any delay in negotiations to continue to rebuild its military capabilities. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated on May 9 that Iran is still reviewing the US proposal and will “pay no attention to…deadlines.”

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