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US President Donald Trump stated on May 10 that Iran’s latest counterproposal is “totally unacceptable.” Iranian regime media reported on May 10 that the regime had sent its counterproposal to the United States via Pakistani mediators. Individuals familiar with Iran’s counterproposal told the Wall Street Journal on May 10 that Iran’s counterproposal calls for an end to the war, the “gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” and the lifting of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ports. The United States and Iran would conduct nuclear negotiations over a 30-day period, according to the counterproposal. The individuals speaking to the Wall Street Journal stated that Iran offered to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile and transfer the rest to a third country, but stipulated that Iran must receive guarantees that it would be able to retrieve its transferred HEU if negotiations fail or the United States exits the agreement. Iran also offered to halt uranium enrichment for an unspecified period shorter than 20 years and refused to dismantle its nuclear facilities. This counterproposal bears similarities to Iran’s previous proposals, in which Iran has sought to end the war and address the Strait of Hormuz issue before engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States. US President Donald Trump has insisted that Iran must hand over its HEU stockpile and permanently suspend uranium enrichment. President Trump posted on Truth Social on May 10 that Iran has been “playing games” with the United States and has been delaying negotiations. Israeli media reported on May 10 that Trump will call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today, presumably to discuss Iran’s response.
Iran likely conducted attacks against a commercial vessel and some Gulf countries on May 10. These attacks may be intended to sustain high oil prices and thereby impose economic pressure on the United States in order to compel the United States to make concessions in negotiations. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on May 10 that an unspecified projectile struck the SAFESEA NEHA bulk carrier near the coast of Doha, Qatar. The Emirati and Kuwaiti defense ministries separately reported on May 10 that their air defenses intercepted Iranian drones. Iran has not claimed responsibility for these attacks, but the timing of the attacks is notable given that they correspond with Iran sending its counterproposal to the United States. Iran may have calculated that these attacks would sustain high oil prices. ISW-CTP previously assessed that some elements of the Iranian regime may calculate that Iran can impose sufficient economic pressure on the United States, including by keeping global oil prices high, to coerce the United States to make concessions.
Iran is attempting to coerce countries into lifting economic pressure on Iran in order to be able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Artesh Spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia warned on May 10 that vessels belonging to countries that have sanctioned Iran will “face problems” if they attempt to pass through the strait. Akraminia’s warning comes after Iran’s “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” sent an email on May 6 to shipping companies with vessels in the Persian Gulf stipulating that vessels belonging to countries that have sanctioned Iran will not be allowed to transit through the strait. This stipulation effectively requires countries that have sanctioned Iran to lift sanctions before their vessels can pass through the strait. Iran is also attempting to generate revenue by imposing a toll scheme in the strait. The email from the ”Persian Gulf Strait Authority” also demanded that vessels must pay the body in Iranian rials and gain issuances of guarantees from Iranian banks in order to ensure safe passage through the strait, which would force any country that wishes for its vessels to transit through the strait to violate US sanctions. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei likely referred to Iran’s toll scheme in a written statement on April 30, in which he emphasized that Iran would reap “economic gains” from its “new management” of the strait.
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