[ISW] 러시아 공세 작전 평가, 2026년 5월 20일

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핵심 내용:

  • 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴과 중화인민공화국(PRC) 시진핑 주석은 ‘시베리아의 힘-2’ 파이프라인에 대한 합의에 도달하지 못했으며, 푸틴의 공식 중국 방문 기간 동안 비교적 사소한 양자 간 협정만을 체결했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 전선 여러 지역에서 전술적 주도권을 되찾는 것으로 보입니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 쿠피얀스크 방향, 코스티안티니우카-드루주키우카 전술 지역 및 서부 자포리자주에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 수미와 포크로프스크 방향으로 진격했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 밤새 1발의 탄도 미사일과 154대의 드론을, 낮 동안 84대의 드론을 우크라이나를 향해 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

다음은 제시된 핵심 내용과 관련된 최신 정보 및 자료에 대한 링크입니다. 각 링크의 내용이 제대로 있는지 확인하였으며, 관련 내용이 포함되어 있습니다.

  • CFR(Council on Foreign Relations): 러시아의 블라디미르 푸틴과 중국의 시진핑: 그들은 무엇에 대해 이야기했나?
    푸틴과 시진핑의 회담, 시베리아-2 파이프라인 문제와 양자 간 협정의 내용 등을 다루고 있습니다.
  • ISW(Institute for the Study of War): 전쟁 연구소 보고서
    우크라이나 전선 상황, 전술적 주도권 변화, 각 지역에서의 진격 상황 등 전반적인 전황을 분석하는 보고서를 제공합니다. 특히, ISW는 매일매일의 전황 보고서를 발표하여 최신 정보를 파악하는데 유용합니다. (영어)
  • Kyiv Post
    우크라이나 현지에서 발행되는 주요 뉴스 매체로, 전선 상황, 미사일 및 드론 공격 등 관련 정보를 제공합니다. (영어)
  • Reuters
    로이터 통신은 국제적인 뉴스 매체로, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 관련 다양한 소식을 다루고 있습니다. 특히, 전선 상황, 외교적 움직임, 무기 지원 등 관련 정보를 지속적으로 업데이트합니다. (영어)
  • BBC News 코리아
    BBC는 국제적인 뉴스 매체로, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 관련 다양한 소식을 한국어로 제공합니다. 전선 상황, 외교적 움직임, 무기 지원 등 관련 정보를 지속적으로 업데이트합니다.

참고: 위에 제시된 링크는 정보의 정확성을 위해 신뢰할 수 있는 매체를 중심으로 선정되었지만, 전쟁 상황의 특성상 정보가 유동적일 수 있습니다. 최신 정보는 각 링크의 최신 기사나 보고서를 참고하시기 바랍니다. 특히 ISW의 보고서는 매일 업데이트되므로 가장 최신 정보를 얻는 데 도움이 될 것입니다.

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[원문]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) President Xi Jinping failed to reach an agreement.

May 20, 2026

Data Cutoff: 1:45 PM ET

Jakub Kostka, Kateryna Shymkiv, Jennie Olmsted, Grace Mappes, Diana Nasreddine, and George Barros

TOPLINES

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) President Xi Jinping failed to reach an agreement on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline and signed only comparatively minor bilateral agreements during Putin’s official visit to the PRC. Putin and Xi held a joint press conference on May 20 in which the leaders praised deep relations between Russia and the PRC and how Russia and the PRC actively cooperate in energy, noting that Russia is one of the PRC’s largest oil suppliers. Kremlin Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated that Russia and China reached agreements on energy projects and “something else very important,” but did not specify what it was, and the parties notably failed to reach an agreement on the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 (PS-2) pipeline. Russia and the PRC have been in disagreement about the PS-2 since at least 2024, as Russia faces a more immediate need for the pipeline to substitute income from exports lost since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the PRC is using its upper hand to extract concessions from Russia on the issue. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement on further strengthening their comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction, and on deepening good-neighborly friendship and cooperation, about 40 intergovernmental, interagency, and corporate documents, mainly aimed at deepening economic cooperation, as well as a joint declaration on the Establishment of a Multipolar World and a New Type of International Relations. The agreements signed were relatively small in comparison to the Kremlin’s hopes that Putin’s visit would culminate in a signed deal on the PS-2. Ushakov highlighted on May 18 the PS-2 pipeline as one of the priority items for Putin’s official visit to the PRC, and Putin’s failure to secure a signed agreement demonstrates the current limits of Russo-Sino cooperation.

Ukrainian forces appear to be regaining the tactical initiative in different sectors of the frontline in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have conducted a series of counterattacks in different areas across the theater in recent months, having made their most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024. Ukrainian counterattacks recaptured much of Kupyansk starting in November 2025, liberated over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine in winter and spring 2026, and most recently liberated several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast since late April 2026. Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have created cascading operational and strategic effects against Russia’s ongoing Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt, which has forced Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors. Ukraine’s intensified mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since early 2026 has also degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive operations across the theater and has also likely supported recent Ukrainian advances. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 15 in an exclusive interview with Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi that precise Ukrainian strikes, the destruction of Russian reserves, and constant pressure on Russian assault units have allowed Ukrainian forces to increasingly seize the tactical initiative and force Russian forces to react to a Ukrainian-defined operational tempo. Syrskyi did not provide absolute figures but noted that the number of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded those of Russian forces as of May 14, which may indicate Ukraine contesting the initiative at the tactical level and engaging in more active counterattacks.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) President Xi Jinping failed to reach an agreement on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline and signed only comparatively minor bilateral agreements during Putin’s official visit to the PRC.

  • Ukrainian forces appear to be regaining the tactical initiative in different sectors of the frontline in Ukraine.

  • Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kupyansk direction, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces advanced in the Sumy and Pokrovsk directions.



  • Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and 154 drones toward Ukraine overnight and an additional 84 drones during the day.  

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