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Russia and Belarus completed their combined nuclear exercises on May 21, highlighting Russia’s ability to leverage Belarus for future Russian military operations and Russia’s deepening de facto control over Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko presided over the second stage of combined Russian-Belarusian nuclear force exercises on May 21. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces delivered nuclear munitions to Belarus and that Belarusian forces practiced receiving, equipping, and moving specialized munitions and launch vehicles for the Iskander-M ballistic missile system. The Russian MoD claimed that the exercises included the launch of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk State Test Cosmodrome, a Zircon hypersonic missile from the Barents Sea, a Sineva ICBM from a submerged nuclear-powered strategic submarine, cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft, a Kinzhal hypersonic missile from MiG-31I aircraft, and an Iskander-M missile from the Kapustin Yar Training Ground. The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Northern and Pacific Fleets, Long-Range Aviation (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS]), and Leningrad and Central Military Districts took part in the missile launches. Putin claimed that Russia and Belarus plan to hold the biennial "Union Shield" exercises in 2027. The next Union Shield exercises may include a nuclear component for the first time.
The exercises with Russian nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory highlight the extent to which Russia has absorbed Belarus under its de facto control. The Belarusian Constitution previously stated that Belarus was a non-nuclear state, but Belarus amended its constitution in 2022 to renounce the country’s neutrality and non-nuclear status, likely under Kremlin pressure and influence over Belarusian decision-making. The exercises reflect the deterioration of Belarusian sovereignty and Russia’s expanding capacity to leverage Belarus as a springboard for its own military purposes.
Ukrainian strikes continue to constrain Russian oil refining and energy revenues, even as the war in the Middle East has provided a budget windfall in the short term. Reuters reported on May 20, citing unspecified official data and sources, that virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia have halted or scaled back their fuel output following recent Ukrainian drone strikes. Reuters reported that the affected refineries total over 30 percent of Russian gasoline output and 25 percent of Russia’s diesel output. The source told Reuters that the Kirishi Oil Refinery in Leningrad Oblast, one of Russia’s largest oil refineries that has a processing capacity of 20 million metric tons per year, has fully halted operations since May 5. Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishi refinery on the night of May 4 to 5. Reuters noted that it is unclear if the Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez Oil Refinery, which has an annual processing capacity of 17 million tons, has been able to maintain partial operations following a Ukrainian strike on May 20.
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