May 22, 2026

Data Cutoff: May 22, 2026

 Alison O’Neil, Daniel Shats, Karina Wugang, Sam Haendel, and Jakub Kostka of the Institute for the Study of War;

Alexis Turek of the American Enterprise Institute

US President Donald Trump stated that US arms sales to Taiwan were under consideration and suggested that they could be used as a “negotiating chip” with the PRC while cautioning Taiwan against seeking independence. The PRC could exploit these statements to gain leverage over the United States and decrease Taiwanese faith in the United States. Trump cautioned Taiwan against “seeking independence” and urged Taiwan to “cool down” tensions with the PRC during a May 15 interview. Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has maintained that Taiwan does not need to declare formal independence because it already sees itself as a sovereign nation. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) reiterated this idea on May 18 and emphasized that Taiwan seeks to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The PRC consistently presents Lai and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as “independence activists” that “provoke” PRC aggression.

Taiwanese Presidential Office Spokesperson Karen Kuo stated on May 16 that US law stipulates arms sales to Taiwan. Kuo’s statement referred to the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which governs the unofficial diplomatic relationship between Taiwan and the United States. The TRA states that the United States “shall make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity as determined by the President and the Congress.” The US’s Taiwan policy is also based on an additional “Six Assurances” to Taiwan. One of these Assurances states that the United States has “not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan,” placing Trump’s comments in contradiction with the spirit of US policy.  

Acting Secretary of the US Navy Hung Cao stated on May 21 that the United States paused a 14 billion US dollar weapons purchase to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for US operations in the Middle East. Hung’s statement follows reporting that the PRC could be delaying approval of talks with US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby. US President Trump stated on May 20 that he would speak with Taiwanese President Lai, which may have influenced the PRC’s actions. No sitting US President has spoken directly with a Taiwanese President since 1979, in keeping with the US policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan. The PRC cancelled an earlier set of talks with the United States discussing diplomatic exchanges with Colby over a Taiwan arms sale package announced in December 2025. The PRC makes consistent statements opposing US arms sales to Taiwan and linking these arms sales to “independence” and “separatist” movements, despite Taiwan’s stated policy of maintaining the status quo. Official US statements regarding the pausing of arms sales to Taiwan do not mention the PRC. The PRC will likely seek to use this development to decrease Taiwanese faith in the United States and will likely seek to influence future US arms sales to Taiwan.

• US President Donald Trump stated that US arms sales to Taiwan were under consideration and suggested that they could be used as a “negotiating chip” with the PRC while cautioning Taiwan against seeking independence. The United States announced a pause of a 14 billion US dollar arms sale to Taiwan on May 21. The PRC will likely seek to exploit US statements and policy to decrease Taiwanese faith in US support.

• CCP Secretary General Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 20. Xi and Putin signaled continued strong bilateral relations, but they failed to reach an agreement on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, a key priority for Russia.

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