[ISW] 이란 업데이트 특별 보고서, 2026년 5월 26일

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핵심 내용 요약:

  • 이란과 미국은 주요 현안에 대한 이견을 좁히지 못했습니다.
    • 이란 관료들은 5월 25일에 핵 프로그램에 대해 논의할 의사가 없다고 밝혔습니다.
    • 이란 언론은 미국이 이란 영토 내에서 우라늄 농축 권리를 존중해야 한다고 주장했습니다.
  • 이란에 대한 경제적 지원은 군사력 재건 속도를 높일 수 있습니다.
    • 이란은 합의 서명 후 동결 자산의 절반을 즉시, 나머지 절반은 60일 이내에 해제할 것을 요구한 것으로 보입니다. (5월 26일, 이슬람 혁명 수비대 (IRGC) 언론)
  • 이란은 호르무즈 해협 재개방을 거부하고 있습니다.
    • 이란은 5월 25일, 불법적인 통행 분리 체계를 유지하기 위해 무력을 사용, 호르무즈 해협에 기뢰를 설치하려 했습니다.
  • 이란 최고 지도자 모즈타바 하메네이는 미국의 적대적 태도를 재확인했습니다.
    • 5월 26일, 하메네이는 이슬람 혁명의 원칙과 부친의 대전략(이스라엘 파괴, 역내 미군 축출, 미국에 대항하는 “새로운 이슬람 문명” 건설)에 대한 헌신을 재확인했습니다.
    • 하메네이는 “미국[과 이스라엘]에 죽음을” 다시 한 번 이란과 이슬람 세계의 구호로 강조했습니다.

최신 관련 자료 및 링크:

다음은 이란과 관련된 최근 보도 및 분석 자료입니다. 각 링크의 내용이 최신 정보와 일치하는지 확인하십시오.

주의 사항: 이 정보는 5월 25-26일의 정보를 바탕으로 하며, 이란 상황은 매우 유동적이므로, 최신 정보를 얻기 위해 위 링크를 지속적으로 확인하시기 바랍니다. 영문 기사에서는 필요에 따라 번역기를 활용하여 내용을 파악하는 것을 권장합니다.

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[원문]

Iran and the United States have not bridged key differences on all the major demands in the US-Iran talks.

May 26, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

Katherine Wells, Adham Fattah, Parker Hempel, Carolyn Moorman, and Brian Carter

TOPLINES

Iran and the United States have not bridged key differences on all the major demands in the US-Iran talks. Iranian officials said that they are unwilling to discuss their nuclear program on May 25, and Iranian regime media on May 25 insisted that the United States observe Iran’s right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory. Mediators and US officials added that the United States will not provide economic relief to Iran without serious commitments from Iran on its nuclear program. This represents a major impasse in talks because Iran refuses to discuss its nuclear program without economic relief. US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social on May 26 that Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) must be “immediately turned over” to the United States or else destroyed where it is within Iran or at another “acceptable location” with verification. The two sides remain far apart on the Strait of Hormuz, as well, which is discussed in greater detail below.

Granting Iran economic relief by unfreezing funds or removing sanctions would likely decrease Iranian military reconstitution timelines. Iran reportedly demanded that the US immediately release the first half of frozen Iranian assets upon signing the agreement and the second half of the assets within 60 days, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) media on May 26. The exact amount of these assets is unclear. The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson explicitly said that Iran would use its unfrozen assets to reconstitute and improve the ballistic missile and drone programs. Iranian officials have also called for the United States to lift the US Navy blockade and sanctions on oil as part of the deal for at least 30 to 60 days. Detailed reconstitution timelines do not exist in the open-source, and intelligence leaks about these timelines are impossible to judge on their own merits due to the lack of context provided in leaks. ISW-CTP has previously assessed that Iran would likely need a longer period of time to reconstitute its missile program than it did after the June 2025 strikes because the combined force struck many more production targets than Israel did in June 2025. This relative assessment — as well as any more detailed assessment — relies on various assumptions about the amount of funds Iran can put towards reconstitution and rebuilding of its military forces, among other factors. Unfreezing funds or dropping sanctions gives Iran relatively more funds to put towards reconstitution.

Iran is also refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and using force to ensure the recognized traffic separation scheme remains closed. Iranian officials continue to state Iran will only re-open the strait to civilian ships under “Iranian arrangements,” and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s guidance to the Iranian government on May 25 said Iran must leverage the strait for economic gain. This position directly contradicts the US position on freedom of navigation, because freedom of navigation through an international waterway has no ”arrangements” imposed by another state. Iran has forced vessels to proceed through the strait using its territorial waters and an illegitimate (but unmined) traffic separation scheme by mining the recognized traffic separation scheme (which is in an international waterway) and threatening to fire at any vessel that uses it.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Iran and the United States have not bridged key differences on all the major demands in the US-Iran talks. Iranian officials said that they are unwilling to discuss their nuclear program on May 25, and Iranian regime media on May 25 insisted that the United States observe Iran’s right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory.

  • Granting Iran economic relief by unfreezing funds or removing sanctions would likely decrease Iranian military reconstitution timelines. Iran reportedly demanded that the US immediately release the first half of frozen Iranian assets upon signing the agreement and the second half of the assets within 60 days, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) media on May 26.

  • Iran is also refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and using force to ensure the recognized traffic separation scheme remains closed. Iran used force again on May 25 to maintain its illegitimate traffic separation scheme when it attempted to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei released a statement on May 26 reaffirming the regime’s commitment to the principles of the Islamic Revolution and his father’s grand strategy – namely, a commitment to the destruction of Israel, the expulsion of US forces from the region, and the formation of a “new Islamic civilization” united against the United States. Khamenei emphasized that “Death to America [and Israel]” will again be the slogan of Iran and the Islamic world.

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