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Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. Poland’s Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that as of 1900 local time on September 11, Polish law enforcement agencies found 17 total drones throughout eastern and northern Poland. Polish media reported that at least one drone crashed near a Polish Territorial Defense Force unit in Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą (southwest of Warsaw). A Polish defense analyst stated that at least 15 of the recovered drones were Gerbera decoy drones, many of which were equipped with fuel tanks that doubled their range to as far as 900 kilometers. The Polish Air Navigation Services Agency announced that it will limit air traffic in eastern Poland along the borders with Ukraine and Belarus until December 9 in response to the September 9-10 drone incursion. Polish media reported on September 11 that about 40,000 Polish troops will deploy to the Poland-Belarus border area as a result of heightened tensions following the drone incursion and the upcoming Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, which begin on September 12. Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated that Latvia will also close its airspace along its eastern border with Belarus and Russia until at least September 18, following in Poland’s footsteps.
Poland’s allies reiterated their support for Poland following the drone incursion, condemning Russia for purposefully conducting the incursion to test NATO readiness. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz reported on September 10 that Sweden has provided an emergency package of air defense assets and aircraft to Poland; that the Netherlands is providing Poland with systems such as Patriots, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), and anti-drone systems; and that other allies are also providing Poland with concrete declarations of support. Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová announced during a phone call with Kosiniak-Kamysz that Czechia will provide a helicopter unit with specially modified Mi-171 helicopters to Poland following the drone incursion. Several NATO member states, including the Netherlands and Czechia, summoned Russian ambassadors due to the drone incursion. Bloomberg reported on September 11 that a source familiar with the matter stated that NATO is preparing unspecified defensive military measures in response to the drone incursion into Poland, in addition to a political response. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Russia deliberately provoked NATO during the drone incursion and noted that this was “part of a long series of provocations” along NATO’s entire eastern flank. ISW assessed on September 10 that the Russian drone incursions were part of a multipronged and longstanding Russian effort to test NATO’s technical capabilities and political resolve in preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Ukrainian officials responded to the drone incursion by drawing parallels to Russian cycles of aggression and escalation against Ukraine and offered to share Ukraine’s now-institutional counter-drone knowledge with Poland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during a meeting with Finnish President Alexander Stubb on September 11 that Russia flew drones into Poland on September 9-10 in order to test NATO’s military and political abilities to respond to Russian kinetic provocations. Zelensky noted that the psychological effects of the drone incursion mirror the psychological impacts of Russia’s deployment of “little green men” to Crimea before the illegal occupation of the peninsula in 2014. Zelensky implied that Russia hopes to use these drone strikes to push the Overton Window of what NATO is willing to absorb as an “acceptable” escalation, much like Russia did when it deployed unmarked, illegal combatants to Crimea to seize the peninsula in 2014. Zelensky also reaffirmed that Ukraine has offered to help train Polish forces to shoot down Russian drones. Ukraine has developed invaluable tactics and technologies to effectively counter Russian drone strikes, and NATO states must work to absorb and institutionalize this experience the way Ukraine has in order to properly respond to potential Russian kinetic aggression against the alliance.
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