October 3, 2025

Information Cutoff: 9 AM ET, October 1

Matthew Sperzel, Johanna Moore, and Grace Mappes, with Nicholas Carl

Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. According to the leaked documents, Russia plans to provide the airborne forces with 37 BMD-4M amphibious infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), 11 BTR-MDM airborne IFVs, 11 Sprut-SDM1 light, self-propelled anti-tank guns, and an unspecified number of airborne command and observation vehicles. Such platforms would be especially useful for combat in the rough terrain of Taiwan. Russia also plans to provide long-range, special purpose parachutes, according to the leaked documents, which would facilitate the insertion of airborne forces from a distance. The leaked documents also revealed Russian plans to train PLA airborne forces on landing, maneuver, and fire control.

Airborne forces would likely be critical in any PLA effort to invade Taiwan. The PLA has envisioned using airborne elements to infiltrate Taiwan, strike sensitive civilian and military targets, conduct sabotage, and support the capture of key logistical hubs, among other tasks. Such forces could be especially effective given the destructive power that drones afford small units, as demonstrated in Ukraine.

The leaked documents demonstrate how the growing PRC-Russia partnership could accelerate PLA modernization efforts and help prepare the PLA to attack Taiwan. Russia relies heavily on the PRC for energy exports and access to dual-use products, which has likely increased the Russian willingness to support the aggressive PRC military buildup.

• Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia can support PLA modernization efforts.

• Russia has continued to pursue energy deals with the PRC and Iran in order to bolster its economy and sustain its war against Ukraine. The agreements include Russian support to the Iranian civilian nuclear program.

• The reimposition of UN and EU sanctions against Iran will further isolate Iran politically, militarily, and economically on the world stage and likely push it closer to the Adversary Entente.

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