October 3, 2025

Information Cutoff: October 2, 2025

Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, Alfred Han, and Jackson Karas of the Institute for the Study of War;

Alexis Turek and Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute

Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. According to the leaked documents, Russia plans to provide the airborne forces with 37 BMD-4M amphibious infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), 11 BTR-MDM airborne IFVs, 11 Sprut-SDM1 light, self-propelled anti-tank guns, and an unspecified number of airborne command and observation vehicles. Such platforms would be especially useful for combat in the rough terrain of Taiwan. Russia also plans to provide long-range, special purpose parachutes, according to the leaked documents, which would facilitate the insertion of airborne forces from a distance. The leaked documents also revealed Russian plans to train PLA airborne forces on landing, maneuver, and fire control.

Airborne forces would likely be critical in any PLA effort to invade Taiwan. The PLA has envisioned using airborne elements to infiltrate Taiwan, strike sensitive civilian and military targets, conduct sabotage, and support the capture of key logistical hubs, among other tasks. Such forces could be especially effective given the destructive power that drones afford small units, as demonstrated in Ukraine.

The leaked documents demonstrate how the growing PRC-Russia partnership could accelerate PLA modernization efforts and help prepare the PLA to attack Taiwan. Russia relies heavily on the PRC for energy exports and access to dual-use products, which has likely increased the Russian willingness to support the aggressive PRC military buildup.

• PRC-Russia military cooperation: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia is supporting PLA modernization efforts.

• PRC effort to isolate Taiwan: Xi Jinping has reportedly urged US President Donald Trump to revise US policy on Taiwan and specify that the United States opposes Taiwanese independence. The PRC is likely emboldened following previous US concessions regarding Taiwan.

• PRC effort to isolate Taiwan: The PRC has continued to co-opt international institutions as forums to promote itself as a responsible global leader and articulate its vision for a PRC-centric world order. The effort is meant to erode US influence globally.

• PRC effort to isolate Taiwan: Taiwanese Foreign Affairs Minister Lin Chia-lung made an unprecedented visit to New York for the UN General Assembly. The PRC criticized the visit as part of its long-standing effort to isolate Taiwan diplomatically.

• North Korean nuclear program: North Korean Vice Foreign Affairs Minister Kim Son Gyong rejected denuclearization at the UN General Assembly. Pyongyang may be emboldened since the PRC and Russia have reduced their opposition to the North Korean nuclear program.

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