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Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. Putin claimed in an interview published on October 5 that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in US-Russian relations – linking the prospect of improved US-Russian relations with limits on US support for Ukraine. Putin is continuing to dangle the prospect of incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Putin has been trying to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement, including by pressuring the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks, to secure Russia’s desired demands in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear. Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects. Ukraine’s ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia’s rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage – if not destroy – key military assets in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast from which Russia sorties strategic bombers that fire air-launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Russia has been able to significantly scale up its Shahed drone production by expanding the factory in Yelabuga, allowing Russia to launch increasingly large and more frequent long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s nightly strike packages in September 2025 featured an average of 187 long-range drones (many of which are Shahed-type drones) per night, whereas similar strike packages in January 2025 only featured an average of 83 drones, for example. Russia notably started launching overnight strike packages that included over 500 drones more frequently in September 2025. ISW assesses that there are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of the 2,500-kilometer variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations. Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.
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