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German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities. The Munich Airport reported on October 4 that authorities closed the airport on the night of October 3 to 4 due to unidentified drones operating near the airport — the second time in less than 24 hours that the airport closed due to drones. German outlet Bild reported on October 4, citing unnamed security sources, that authorities determined that the unidentified drones operating near the Munich Airport were military reconnaissance drones and that German authorities also detected an unidentified small aircraft flying near an ammunition depot near Jever on October 3. Bild reported that German authorities arrested a Croatian man piloting a drone roughly 700 meters from the Frankfurt Airport on October 3 and that three unidentified drones flew over the Federal Police Aviation Squadron Headquarters in Gifhorn on October 2. These unidentified aerial incursions near critical German infrastructure come against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing attempts to destabilize Europe and undermine NATO’s cohesion.
Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities, possibly as part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war. UK Space Command Head Major General Paul Tedman told the BBC in an article published on October 2 that Russia has been trying to jam British military satellites with ground-based systems weekly. Tedman stated that Russia is “flying relatively close” to the UK satellites and is trying to collect information. Tedman noted that this Russian activity is deliberate and has increased since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Tedman noted that Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have tested anti-satellite weapons and that Russia is developing the capability to put nuclear weapons in space. Tedman assessed that the PRC has more sophisticated capabilities, but that Russia has a greater will to use its counter-space systems. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reported on September 25 that Russia had used two Olymp-K satellites to track German military Intelsat satellites. Pistorius stated that Russia and the PRC can jam, blind, manipulate, or kinetically disrupt satellites.
Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Rostov and Voronezh oblasts and 109 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones from the directions of Bryansk, Oryol, and Kursk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of October 3 and 4. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 73 drones over northern and eastern Ukraine, that three missiles and 36 drones hit 21 locations, and that drone debris fell on four locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck a civilian train in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, during the day on October 4 with Shahed-type drones, killing one civilian and injuring at least 30 others. Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne reported on October 4 that Russian forces conducted a Shahed-type drone strike against agricultural enterprises in Sumy Oblast, damaging two warehouses storing 700 tons and 1,000 tons of grain, respectively. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes disrupted power supplies in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv oblasts and injured civilians and damaged residential infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Russia is likely prioritizing strikes against civilians and energy infrastructure to continue its long-standing campaign to degrade Ukraine’s energy security ahead of Winter 2025-2026 and demoralize the Ukrainian populace.
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff and Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported on October 4 that Ukrainian forces, with support from the Russian insurgency group Chernaya Iskra, conducted a strike against the Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, on the night of October 3 to 4. The SSO reported that Ukrainian forces, in coordination with Chernaya Iskra, struck the oil refinery’s installation that produces linear alkylbenzenes and linear alkylaromatic sulphonates, and the installation that filters impurities from the oil. The SSO reported that this is the third Ukrainian strike against the facility in 2025 and that the oil refinery has an annual processing capacity of roughly 20.1 million tons. Ukrainian Center for Combatting Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported on October 4 that the Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery is one of Russia’s five largest refineries. Geolocated footage published on October 4 shows fires near the oil refinery in Kirishi, and NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) shows heat anomalies in the area. Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko claimed on October 4 that Russian forces downed seven drones over Kirishi and that a fire started in the industrial zone.
A Russian insider source claimed on October 3 that the Khabarovsk Krai Prosecutor’s Office is intervening to assess the actions, particularly those related to pricing, of government agencies and selling fuel that are affecting the worsening gasoline shortages in the region. The insider source claimed that Khabarovsk Krai Governor Dmitry Demeshin claimed that private gas stations were unable to purchase enough gasoline, which has exacerbated shortages and price increases. The insider source claimed that private gasoline stations are closing in order to avoid profit losses. The insider source claimed that Russia’s Far East, eastern Siberia, northern Caucasus region, and occupied Crimea are at an increased risk of gasoline shortages and that ongoing Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries west of the Ural Mountains coincided with scheduled maintenance, leading to a 10 to 11 percent reduction in anticipated gasoline and diesel fuel production in September 2025. The insider source claimed that 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries, many of which Ukrainian forces have struck repeatedly in recent months, are in regions that are experiencing rising gasoline costs. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on October 4 that residents in Biysk, Altai Krai, are reporting acute AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline shortages that are resulting in long lines and local complaints about rising gas prices. Astra reported that residents noted that roughly half of the gasoline stations in Biysk have closed.
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