October 15, 2025

Information Cutoff: 12:15 AM ET

Olivia Gibson, Justin Young, Jennie Olmsted, Angelica Evans, Ian Matthews, and George Barros with Veronica Iredale

The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian business outlet Kommersant in an interview published on October 15, entitled “Europe wants to turn the conflict in Ukraine into Trump’s War,” that a US sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine “would be an escalation, and a very serious one at that.” Lavrov claimed that such a move would “cause colossal damage” to the normalization of US-Russian relations and undermine the bilateral improvements made since the Biden administration. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is waging a reflexive control campaign to deter the United States from authorizing the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by threatening a deterioration in US-Russian relations.

The Trump administration continues to voice support for additional military support for Ukraine ahead of the October 17 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump stated on October 15 that Zelensky “would like” the United States to sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and that he has spoken to Zelensky about the issue. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on October 15 that the United States “will take steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression” if Russia does not soon agree to negotiations to end its war in Ukraine. Hegseth urged allies to increase military aid to Ukraine, stating that a ”combat-ready Ukrainian army and strong European-led NATO are critical for deterring Russian aggression” and that the United States “stands ready to do its part“ to aid Europe.

The Kremlin continues to advance its messaging strategy designed to separate the United States from Ukraine and Europe to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov further claimed during the October 15 interview that Europe seeks to turn the conflict in Ukraine into “[US President Donald] Trump’s war” and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Europe want to lead Trump “astray.” Lavrov also claimed that Europe and Zelensky are giving Trump “ultimatums” and that he is shocked by Europe’s attempts to make this “Trump’s war.” Lavrov appears to be seizing on the Trump Administration’s repeated efforts to distance itself from the beginning and causes of the war in Ukraine. Lavrov’s statements cohere with ISW’s long-standing assessment that the Kremlin seeks to leverage narratives designed to undercut Ukraine and Europe in an effort to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine.

• The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates.

• The Trump administration continues to voice support for additional military support for Ukraine ahead of the October 17 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

• The Kremlin continues to advance its messaging strategy designed to separate the United States from Ukraine and Europe to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine.

• Dutch officials recently observed unidentified drones operating near a NATO military exercise in Poland that may have disrupted military-grade communication systems, marking the latest incident in a trend of drone incursions across Europe.

• Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the October 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting.

• European officials report that UK sanctions and NATO joint military operations are inhibiting Russia’s illicit shadow fleet.

• Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.

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