[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 10월 16일

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주요 내용 요약:

  • 이라크 내 종파 폭력: 이란의 지원을 받는 이라크 전투원들이 10월 14일, 이라크 타르미야 지역 알-두바트 구역에서 폭발물을 사용하여 이라크 수니파 주권 연합 후보이자 바그다드 주 의회 의원인 사파 알-마샤다니를 암살한 것으로 보입니다.

    관련 자료:

    • CFR – 이라크 (Council on Foreign Relations): 이라크의 정치적 불안정, 종파 간 갈등, 이란의 영향력에 대한 최신 분석 제공. 확인 결과, 이라크 내 종파 갈등과 관련된 최신 정보가 존재하며, 이란의 개입 가능성도 논의되고 있습니다.
  • 후티 지도부: 후티 반군은 10월 16일, 이스라엘의 공습으로 후티 참모총장인 모하마드 압드 알 카림 알 가마리가 사망했다고 확인했습니다. 예멘 분석가에 따르면, 알 가마리는 2004년 이후 사망한 후티 반군 고위 관계자 중 최고위급입니다. 후티 반군은 알 가마리의 후임으로 전 후티 제5군 사령관 유수프 하산 알 마다니 소장을 임명했습니다.

    관련 자료:

  • 이란 국방 전략: 최고 국방 위원회 고문인 알리 샴카니 이란 최고 지도자의 최근 발언은 이란의 미사일 교리와 핵 자세에 대한 정권 내 진행 중인 내부 논쟁을 강조합니다.

    관련 자료:

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[원문]

Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on October 14 with an explosive device in al Dhub

October 16, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Nidal Morrison, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Zahra Wakilzada, Parker Hempel, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter 

TOPLINES

Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on October 14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq. The perpetrators remotely detonated an explosive device on Mashhadani’s car, killing Mashhadani and injuring four others. Both the Iraqi parliament speaker and the prime minister announced investigations into the assassination. Iraqi Security Media Cell head Lieutenant General Saad Maan said on October 15 that unspecified actors had previously tried to assassinate Safaa al Mashhadani. No group has claimed responsibility for either incident at the time of this writing, which suggests the involvement of Iranian-backed actors.

Iranian-backed militias likely assassinated Safaa al Mashhadani. Iranian-backed Shia militias have long maintained a presence in Tarmiyah and other predominantly agricultural areas north of Baghdad, where they have murdered Sunni civilians and advocated sectarian cleansing of Sunni areas. Both Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada and Kataib Hezbollah have explicitly and implicitly called for Sunnis in Tarmiyah to be displaced and presumably replaced with Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) facilities or other populations. Iranian-backed militias previously cleansed Jurf al Sakhr, a formerly Sunni area south of Baghdad, and replaced the Sunni town there with a PMF base that is inaccessible to the Iraqi government. These militias also recently denied the capable, apolitical, and US-trained Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) access to Tarmiyah. Mashhadani continuously advocated for the removal of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias from Tarmiyah, which these groups would have perceived as a threat to their dominance north of Baghdad. Mashhadani’s assassination followed his October 14 announcement that the Baghdad Provincial Council voted to suspend the allocation of investment licenses for projects in the Baghdad Belts following reports of unspecified violations against local farmers and landowners.

The Houthis confirmed on October 16 that Israeli airstrikes killed Houthi Chief of General Staff Mohammad Abd al Karim al Ghamari. Ghamari is the most senior Houthi official who has been killed since 2004, according to a Yemeni analyst. Ghamari served as the Houthi military chief of staff since 2016. Ghamari was responsible for overseeing Houthi military operations and directing the procurement of various weapons. Ghamari reportedly had close ties to Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The United States designated Ghamari a Specially Designated National and Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) in May 2021. The Houthis will almost certainly not immediately retaliate for Ghamari’s death. The Houthis did not specify when Ghamari was killed, but Israeli airstrikes in June and August 2025 reportedly targeted him. The Houthis have likely announced his death now because they view the recent Hamas-Israel ceasefire agreement as an end to the October 7 War. Other Axis of Resistance groups have similarly delayed confirming the death of leaders. Israel killed former Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, Mohammad Sinwar, in May 2025, but Hamas only confirmed his death months later in August 2025.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Sectarian Violence in IraqIranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on October 14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq.

  • Houthi Leadership: The Houthis confirmed on October 16 that Israeli airstrikes killed Houthi Chief of General Staff Mohammad Abd al Karim al Ghamari. Ghamari is the most senior Houthi official who has been killed since 2004, according to a Yemeni analyst. The Houthis appointed former Houthi 5th Military Region commander Major General Yousuf Hassan al Madani to replace Ghamari.



  • Iran Defense Strategy: Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser to the Supreme Defense Council Ali Shamkhani’s recent remarks on Iran’s missile doctrine and nuclear posture highlight an ongoing internal debate about the regime’s military strategies.

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