October 16, 2025

Information Cutoff: 9:00 PM ET

Justin Young, Christina Harward, Olivia Gibson, Jessica Sobieski, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan with Veronica Iredale 

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16. Trump stated that the two leaders had a “very productive” call and that the two largely discussed potential bilateral economic prospects to pursue after a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that the two agreed that there will be a high-level advisor meeting at an unspecified date next week (between October 19 and 25) and an unspecified location with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the US delegation. Trump stated that he and Putin will then meet in Budapest to discuss a resolution to the war. Trump noted that he will discuss the contents of his October 16 phone call with Putin with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during Zelensky’s visit to Washington on October 17. Trump told reporters on October 16 that he will be meeting with Putin in “two weeks or so” and that Rubio will be meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “pretty soon.” Trump suggested that he, Zelensky, and Putin may coordinate “separate but equal” meetings. Trump stated that Putin “really did not like the idea” of the United States sending “a couple thousand Tomahawks” to Ukraine when Trump raised the question.

Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov attempted to obfuscate Russia’s deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in his statement on the October 16 Trump-Putin call. Ushakov claimed that the Trump-Putin call discussed how Ukrainian forces are allegedly using “terrorist methods” to strike civilian and energy infrastructure in Russia since Russia maintains the strategic initiative on the battlefield. Ushakov claimed that the Ukrainian strikes are “forcing” Russia to respond “accordingly.” Ukraine’s recent long-range strike campaign is targeting Russia’s energy sector in order to degrade Russia’s capacity to fund its war against Ukraine and to fuel its fighting forces. Russian forces, in contrast, have been deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, including by conducting first-person view (FPV) drone strikes systematically targeting civilians in Kherson Oblast since late 2023, long predating Ukraine’s recent long-range strike campaign against Russian energy. Open-source investigative outlet Tochnyi reported on September 28 that Russian drone strikes have resulted in 2,877 Ukrainian civilian casualties in Kherson City alone since 2023.

• US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16.

• Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov attempted to obfuscate Russia’s deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in his statement on the October 16 Trump-Putin call.

• Russia is intentionally muddying the information space with false flag claims and information operations in an attempt to generate cover for overt and covert attacks against Europe in the past several years, including the recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace.

• Russian forces are reportedly using North Korean forces operating in Russia in ways that will allow North Korean forces to take battlefield lessons learned back to North Korea.

• Russian forces are reportedly adapting their long-range drone and missile strike tactics targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt the Ukrainian power system on a large scale.

• Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance for Ukraine at the October 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting.



• Russian forces advanced near Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

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