[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 10월 19일

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핵심 내용:

  • 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴은 전쟁 종결 조건으로 우크라이나가 도네츠크주 전체를 러시아에 양도할 것을 재차 요구한 것으로 알려졌습니다. 또한 러시아가 점령한 우크라이나 남부 지역의 일부를 “포기”할 의향이 있음을 시사했습니다. 도네츠크주를 러시아에 양도하는 것은 러시아가 유리한 위치에서 원하는 시점에 우크라이나에 대한 공격을 재개할 수 있는 조건을 설정하게 됩니다.
  • 러시아 관리들과 친 크렘린 소식통들은 헤르손 시를 재탈환하기 위한 지속적인 공세로 헤르손 방향에서 제한적인 러시아 공격 작전을 묘사하려고 시도하고 있습니다. 이는 푸틴이 우크라이나 남부에서 영토 양보를 할 준비가 되었다고 주장하는 것과 모순됩니다.
  • 우크라이나 대통령 볼로디미르 젤렌스키는 우크라이나가 미국에 양자 에너지 제안을 했다고 발표했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 10월 18일 밤부터 19일 사이에 사마라 및 오렌부르크 주의 러시아 석유 기반 시설을 공격했습니다.
  • 독일 관리들은 10월 18일 뮌헨 공항 상공에서 드론과 유사한 미확인 물체를 관찰했다고 보고했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 포크롭스크 인근과 도브로필리아 전술 지역에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 리만과 훌리아이폴 인근, 그리고 자포리자주 서부에서 진격했습니다.

최신 자료 및 관련 링크:

참고: 위 링크들은 제시된 내용을 뒷받침할 수 있는 자료를 포함하고 있으나, 각 링크의 내용이 항상 정확하게 일치하지 않을 수 있습니다. 최신 정보는 각 링크에서 제공하는 내용을 직접 확인하시기 바랍니다. 특히 전쟁 상황은 유동적이므로, 최신 뉴스 보도를 지속적으로 확인하는 것이 중요합니다.

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[원문]

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war.

October 19, 2025

Information Cutoff: 12 pm ET

Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Jessica Sobieski, Justin Young, and Kateryna Stepanenko

TOPLINES

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war, and suggested that Russia would be willing to "surrender" parts of occupied southern Ukraine. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing. Two senior officials told The Washington Post in an article published on October 18 that Putin told US President Trump on October 16 that Ukraine must cede the remainder of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast to Russia "as a condition for ending the war" and that he "would be willing to surrender parts" of occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts in exchange. The exact terms of Putin’s reported offer are unclear. It is possible that Putin may have been referring to Ukrainian-controlled parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts that Russia illegally annexed and does not occupy. Putin previously demanded the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in exchange for a ceasefire in August 2025, and ISW has continuously assessed that ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast disproportionately favors Russia. Donetsk Oblast contains territory that is strategically vital for Ukraine’s defense and defense industrial base (DIB), including the fortress belt — Ukraine’s main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014, which Ukraine has developed into a significant logistical and defense industrial hub. Russian forces currently have no available means of rapidly enveloping or penetrating the fortress belt, which would likely take several years to seize at their current rate of advance. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would allow Russian forces to avoid a long and bloody struggle and continue fighting into deep rear areas of Ukraine from new positions along the Donetsk Oblast border.

 

Russian officials and pro-Kremlin sources are attempting to portray limited Russian offensive operations in the Kherson direction as an ongoing offensive to recapture Kherson City — efforts that are incompatible with Putin’s claimed readiness to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine. Kherson Oblast occupation governor Vladimir Saldo claimed on October 19 that Russian forces control an industrial part of Kherson City in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and several dacha areas on the Dnipro River Delta islands, so "therefore the [seizure] of Kherson [City] itself has already begun." The administrative boundaries of Kherson City are limited to west (right) bank Kherson Oblast, so it is unclear which areas of east bank Kherson Oblast Saldo is referring to. Russian forces withdrew from all of west bank Kherson Oblast as of November 2022 following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive and interdiction campaign. Kremlin newswire TASS framed Saldo’s statement to imply that Russian forces have begun a new concerted offensive effort to seize Kherson City itself — a significant undertaking that would require Russian forces to ford the Dnipro River and dedicate more manpower and materiel than is currently operating in the Kherson direction. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Member Andrei Kolesnik claimed that Russian forces will seize Kherson City as it is a "constituent entity" that "must be returned to Russia," but noted that Russian forces will not do so "anytime soon." ISW has yet to observe any indicators to assess that Russian forces are likely preparing for or have launched a renewed significant offensive operation against west bank Kherson Oblast.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine made bilateral energy proposals to the United States. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 19 that Ukraine made proposals to the United States for gas infrastructure, nuclear power generation, and several other unspecified projects to contribute to Europe’s energy independence from Russia.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war, and suggested that Russia would be willing to "surrender” parts of occupied southern Ukraine. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing.

  • Russian officials and pro-Kremlin sources are attempting to portray limited Russian offensive operations in the Kherson direction as an ongoing offensive to recapture Kherson City — efforts that are incompatible with Putin’s claimed readiness to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine made bilateral energy proposals to the United States.

  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Samara and Orenburg oblasts on the night of October 18 to 19.

  • German officials reported observing unidentified objects resembling drones over Munich Airport on October 18.

  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

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