[ISW] 러시아 공격 작전 평가, 2026년 4월 11일

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핵심 내용 요약:

  • 러시아의 일방적인 단기 휴전: 크렘린은 정교회 부활절 연휴를 맞아 단기, 전역 휴전을 일방적으로 발표했습니다. 이 휴전은 4월 11일 오후 4시(현지 시각)부터 발효되었으며, 휴전 초기 몇 시간 동안 우크라이나와 러시아 양측은 서로 제한적인 위반 행위를 했다고 비난했습니다.
  • FSB의 구금 시설 장악: 러시아 연방보안국(FSB)은 크렘린의 내부 보안 강화 노력의 일환으로 러시아의 구치소(SIZOs) 8곳 중 7곳을 장악했다고 보고되었습니다.
  • FPV 드론의 민간인 공격: 독립적인 보고서에 따르면 러시아가 우크라이나 민간인을 상대로 단거리 FPV(First-Person View, 1인칭 시점) 드론을 조직적으로 사용한 것이 우크라이나 전쟁에서 민간인 사상자 증가의 부분적인 원인일 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 포로 교환: 4월 11일, 우크라이나와 러시아는 민간인 및 전쟁 포로(POW) 교환을 실시했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군의 진격: 우크라이나군은 코스티안티니우카-드루지키우카 전술 지역과 훌리아이폴레, 노보파블리우카 방향에서 최근 진격했습니다.
  • 러시아 내 유류 기반 시설 공격 및 드론 공격: 우크라이나군은 러시아의 유류 기반 시설을 공격했으며, 러시아군은 우크라이나를 상대로 160대의 장거리 공격 드론을 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

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[원문]

The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11

April 11, 2025

Data Cutoff: 11:30 AM ET

Justin Young, Diana Nasreddine, Jessica Sobieski, Jennie Olmsted, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

TOPLINES

The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations in the first hours of the ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 11 that Ukraine will “observe a regime of silence” and will “mirror” Russian actions, including refraining from its own strikes as long as Russian forces do not conduct strikes in the sky, on land, and at sea. Zelensky also stated that Ukraine has created a proposal to help use the Orthodox Easter ceasefire to move toward peace.

A Ukrainian local Kherson Oblast strikes monitoring channel reported on April 11 that Russian forces conducted a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) strike against Tyahynska Hromada in Kherson Oblast within a half hour of the ceasefire coming into effect and stated that Russian forces had not stopped first-person view (FPV) drone strikes as of the MLRS strike. A Ukrainian Kherson City news channel published intercepted footage from a Russian FPV strike drone striking a civilian parking lot in Kherson City about two hours and 40 minutes after the start of the declared ceasefire. Nova Kakhovka acting occupation mayor Vladimir Oganesov claimed on April 11 that Ukrainian drone strikes damaged three cars and a house and injured one civilian in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, within roughly half an hour of the ceasefire coming into effect.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations in the first hours of the ceasefire.

  • The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has reportedly taken control of seven of eight Russian pre-trial detention centers (SIZOs) as part of the Kremlin’s broader effort to strengthen the internal security apparatus.

  • Available independent reporting indicates that Russia’s systematic use of short-range first-person view (FPV) drones against civilians in Ukraine is likely partially responsible for the increase in civilian casualties in the war in Ukraine.

  • Ukraine and Russia conducted civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on April 11.

  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in the Hulyaipole and Novopavlivka directions.

  • Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 160 long-range strike drones against Ukraine.

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