[ISW] 러시아 공세 작전 평가, 2026년 4월 16일

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핵심 요약:

  • 러시아군은 4월 15일과 16일 밤에 걸쳐 여섯 번째로 큰 규모의 드론 및 미사일 공격을 감행하여 700대 이상의 공격 수단을 사용했습니다. 이로 인해 최소 17명이 사망하고 100명 이상이 부상을 입었습니다.
  • 러시아군은 또한 키이우 시에서 러시아의 공격에 대응하는 구조대원을 대상으로 이중 타격(double-tap strike)을 가했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 우크라이나의 더 많은 지역을 더 오랫동안 위협하고 민간 지역에 불균형적인 영향을 미치는 새로운 공격 전술을 활용했습니다. 이러한 전술은 전쟁 중 가장 큰 규모의 러시아 공격이었던 3월 23일부터 24일까지의 공격에서 처음 사용되었습니다.
  • 러시아 군사 지휘부는 러시아군의 비현실적인 작전 목표와 기한을 달성하지 못하는 문제를 완화하기 위해 러시아 전략 예비군에서 병력을 빼내고 있는 것으로 보입니다.
  • 고위 러시아 관리들은 크렘린이 검열하거나 흡수할 수 없는 친전쟁 정보 공간 인사들을 억압하여 크렘린 통제 하에 정보 공간을 통합하려는 광범위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 슬로뱐스크-리만 전술 지역에서 진격했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 러시아 석유 기반 시설에 대한 장거리 공격을 지속했습니다. 러시아군은 우크라이나를 향해 44발의 미사일과 636대의 장거리 드론을 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

주의: 제시된 링크의 내용은 시간이 지남에 따라 변경될 수 있습니다. 최신 정보를 얻으려면 직접 관련 뉴스 매체 또는 기관의 웹사이트를 참조하십시오.

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[원문]

Russian forces conducted the sixth largest series of drone and missile strikes throughout the day on April 15 and overnight into April 16

April 16, 2026

Assessment as of: 9:45 PM ET

Data Cutoff: 1:30 PM ET

Grace Mappes, Jessica Sobieski, Diana Nasreddine, Kateryna Shymkiv, Nikolai Sundstrom, Christina Harward, and George Barros

TOPLINES

Russian forces conducted the sixth largest series of drone and missile strikes throughout the day on April 15 and overnight into April 16, using over 700 strike vehicles, killing at least 17 and injuring at least 100 civilians. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on April 16 that Russian forces launched two waves of strikes against Ukraine from 0700 local time on April 15 to 0700 local time on April 16, including 19 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles, five Iskander-K missiles, and 659 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and Italmas-type drones, of which Ukrainian forces downed 19 Kh-101s, eight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, four Iskander-Ks, and 636 long-range drones. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that 12 missiles and 20 drones struck 26 locations and that debris from downed drones and missiles damaged another 25 locations. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched all 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles, one Iskander-K cruise missile, and 361 of the Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and Italmas-type drones (of which about 200 where Shaheds) from 0900 to 2200 local time on April 15, of which Ukrainian forces downed 19 Kh-101s, the Iskander-K missile, and 349 long-range drones. Ukrainian officials reported strikes against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure and residential areas, inflicting especially high damage and casualties in Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv cities. Russian strikes against Kyiv City alone killed at least four and injured at least 54. Russian forces have launched seven strike series consisting of 700 or more drones and missiles, three series of which Russian forces launched within the past month.

Russian forces also conducted a double-tap strike against first responders responding to Russian strikes in Kyiv City. Kyiv City officials reported that a Russian ballistic missile struck an area Kyiv City’s Obolonskyi Raion where three Ukrainian medics and three police officers were responding to a previous Russian strike, injuring at least two medics and at least one law enforcement officer.

Russian forces leveraged a new strike tactic allowing Russia to threaten more areas of Ukraine for longer periods of time and disproportionately affect civilian areas — tactics first debuted during the largest Russian strikes series of the war thus far on March 23 to 24. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces timed the waves of strikes such that the first wave of drones overnight acted almost as “combat reconnaissance” ahead of the two main waves of strikes. Ihnat noted that Russian forces used cruise missiles in the first wave and ballistic missiles in the second wave. Russian forces most likely intended to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses with long-range drones and cruise missiles, for both of which Ukrainian forces have high interception rates, ahead of ballistic missile strikes, which Ukrainian forces struggle to intercept. Ukraine relies on US-provided Patriot air defense systems and interceptors to down Russian ballistic missiles, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent need for both Patriot interceptors in particular and a well-rounded air defense umbrella. Russia likely seeks to take advantage of a global shortage of Patriot interceptors and the current war in the Middle East to escalate its strike campaign against Ukraine.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russian forces conducted the sixth largest series of drone and missile strikes throughout the day on April 15 and overnight into April 16, using over 700 strike vehicles, killing at least 17 and injuring at least 100 civilians.

  • Russian forces also conducted a double-tap strike against first responders responding to Russian strikes in Kyiv City.

  • Russian forces leveraged a new strike tactic allowing Russia to threaten more areas of Ukraine for longer periods of time and disproportionately affect civilian areas — tactics first debuted during the largest Russian strikes series of the war thus far on March 23 to 24.

  • The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines.

  • Senior Russian officials allegedly continue to repress pro-war information space figures that the Kremlin cannot censor or co-opt as part of wider efforts to consolidate the information space under the Kremlin’s control.

  • Ukrainian forces advanced in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area.

  • Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 44 missiles and 636 long-range drones against Ukraine.

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