August 27, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2 PM ET, August 26

Kelly Campa, Daniel Shats, Karolina Hird, and Grace Mappes, with Nicholas Carl

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal following the June 2025 Israel-Iran war, according to Israeli sources. Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter said on July 24 that Israel has observed “disturbing signs” that the PRC may be aiding Iran with its ballistic missile program, including by providing certain “chemicals” and “rebuilding and reorganizing the ballistic missile program.” Israeli outlet Yedioth Ahronoth (Ynet) published a report on August 15 saying that Tehran may be looking to Beijing to rebuild its missile arsenal, citing unspecified Western intelligence agencies.

Iran has previously looked to the PRC for support with its ballistic missile program, and the PRC has historically obliged. PRC-based entities have transferred dual-use technologies to Iran for decades, which Iran has mostly used to support its ballistic missile development. The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission published a report in June 2021, saying that it found that Iran used PRC-origin technology in the missiles with which it attacked US troops in Iraq in January 2020. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported in June 2025 that Iran ordered “thousands of tons” of ammonium perchlorate that could fuel “hundreds” of ballistic missiles, which Iran and its Axis of Resistance could use. WSJ noted that its sources expected the shipment to reach Iran within a few months. The Israel-Iran war erupted a week later, however, and ensuing Israeli strikes significantly degraded Iran’s missile forces.

The Financial Times reported in January 2025 that two Iranian-flagged cargo ships delivered over 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate—a key ingredient in the production of ammonium perchlorate—from ports in the PRC to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in Bandar Abbas, Iran, highlighting previous such cooperation between the PRC and Iran. These reports came as ISW separately assessed that Iran may be looking increasingly to the PRC for military support since Russia declined to provide anything meaningful during the Israel-Iran war. The PRC is unlikely to acknowledge growing military cooperation with Iran outright. It has, however, recently emphasized its continued right to sell military material to friendly countries.

• The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal following the Israel-Iran war. The PRC has a history of providing Iran with material support, including dual-use technologies and chemical components, to support missile production.

• North Korean state media released combat footage of North Korean troops fighting in Kursk Oblast, Russia, highlighting the tactical and technical lessons that North Korea could learn from supporting the Russian war against Ukraine.

• Iran and Belarus have continued to deepen their ties, especially regarding military and military industrial cooperation. This growing cooperation will ultimately benefit Russia and help sustain its war against Ukraine.

• A Ukrainian investigative report confirmed the depths of the PRC-Russian cooperation on drone production. Both Beijing and Moscow could benefit considerably from their collaboration in the field.

• US and Western pressure on the PRC has thus far failed to stop it from economically supporting Russia and Iran. The PRC will likely continue to do so as long as it calculates that the associated risks are negligible.



• Russia proposed a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution that would reportedly delay the potential reimposition of UN sanctions against Iran, demonstrating how Russia uses its UNSC role to provide critical diplomatic cover for Iran.

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