[ISW] 정정: 러시아 공세 작전 평가, 2026년 4월 29일

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주요 내용 요약:

  • 우크라이나군의 장거리 타격 작전 수행: 우크라이나군은 러시아의 과도하게 팽창된 방공망을 틈타 러시아 석유 기반 시설과 군사 자산을 대상으로 장거리 타격 작전을 수행하고 있습니다.
  • 푸틴의 전쟁 목표 재확인 및 인지전 노력: 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령은 4월 29일 도널드 트럼프 전 미국 대통령과의 통화에서 자신의 초기 전쟁 목표를 재확인하고, 우크라이나 방어가 붕괴되고 러시아의 우크라이나 승리가 불가피하다는 허위 주장을 펼치는 인지전 노력을 기울였습니다. 우크라이나는 현재까지 러시아군의 2026년 봄-여름 공세를 대부분 저지했습니다.
  • 미국-이스라엘의 이란 관련 작전에 대한 불만 표명: 크렘린은 또한 트럼프-푸틴 통화에서 미국-이스라엘의 이란 관련 작전에 대해 트럼프를 질책했다고 합니다.
  • 5월 9일 전승절 행사 축소: 러시아의 우크라이나 전쟁으로 인해 크렘린은 역사적으로 러시아 군사력과 우크라이나에서의 승리를 과시하는 행사였던 5월 9일 전승절 행사를 다시 한번 축소해야 했습니다.
  • 점령 지역에서의 선거 관련 조작 시도: 크렘린은 2026년 9월 선거를 앞두고 점령된 우크라이나 지역에서 유권자 탄압과 불법 행위를 은폐하기 위해 “테러 활동” 위협을 이용할 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 우크라이나 자체 방위 산업 기지 지원 지속: 우크라이나의 국내 방위 산업 기지(DIB)와 생산 능력은 동맹국을 계속 지원하고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나군의 진격: 우크라이나군은 코스티안티니우카-드루지키우카 전술 지역, 서부 자포리자주, 올렉산드리우카, 훌리아이폴 방향으로 진격했습니다.
  • 러시아의 드론 공격: 러시아군은 우크라이나를 상대로 171대의 드론을 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

참고: 아래 링크는 2024년 5월 10일 현재, 해당 내용과 관련되어 있을 것으로 추정되는 정보들을 포함하고 있습니다. 링크의 내용이 항상 정확하게 일치하지 않을 수 있으며, 최신 정보를 확인하기 위해 지속적으로 확인하는 것이 필요합니다.

참고: 위 링크들은 예시이며, 실제 내용과 다를 수 있습니다. 최신 정보를 얻기 위해 다양한 뉴스 매체와 기관의 정보를 참고하는 것이 좋습니다.

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[원문]

Ukrainian forces are engaged in an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses.

April 29, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:15 PM ET

Grace Mappes, Jennie Olmsted, Justin Young, Anna Thacker, Jakub Kostka, Nikolai Sundstrom, and George Barros

CORRECTION: ISW has corrected this update to report that the geolocated footage published on April 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces maintain their position in Pokrovsk as opposed to advanced, which ISW had originally reported. We apologize for this error. 

TOPLINES

Ukrainian forces are engaged in an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses. Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against targets throughout Russia, ranging up to 1,400 kilometers from the international border, on the night of April 28 to 29. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on April 29 that Ukrainian forces struck the Transeft Perm Linear Production Dispatch Station, Perm Oblast, causing fires to almost all oil storage tanks at the station. The SBU reported that the station is a strategic hub for Russia’s oil pipeline system and distributes oil in all four directions, including to the Perm Oil Refinery. Geolocated footage published on April 29 shows fires at the dispatch station. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Navy also struck the sanctioned Marquise oil tanker using unmanned service vehicles (USVs) 210 kilometers southeast of Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Marquise was flying under the Cameroonian flag, had a carrying capacity of over 37,000 tons, and was traveling without cargo — likely waiting for loading at sea from another vessel. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi posted geolocated footage and reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian Mi-28 and two Mi-17 helicopters refueling at a field landing site in Voronezh Oblast, 150 kilometers from the frontline. Geolocated footage published on April 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely also conducted strikes targeting the Orsk Oil Refinery in Orenburg Oblast (roughly 1,300 kilometers from the international border).

ISW has observed geolocated evidence that Ukrainian forces conducted at least 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and at least 41 strikes against Russian military assets in at least 19 Russian federal subjects in April 2026. Ukrainian forces have been steadily increasing the range, volume, and intensity of their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets in Russia and occupied Ukraine’s territories since March 2026. Ukrainian forces are exploiting the large attack surface of Russia’s deep rear and overstretched Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, supported by increased Ukrainian domestic drone production. Ukrainian long-range strikes also continue to have outsized impacts on Russian oil exports, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating on April 29 that Ukrainian strikes have left the port of Primorsk, Leningrad Oblast, operating at 13 percent below capacity; the port of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, at 38 percent below capacity; and the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, at 43 percent below capacity.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his April 29 phone call with US President Donald Trump to reiterate his commitment to his original war aims and promote his cognitive warfare effort, falsely portraying Ukraine’s defenses as collapsing and Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable. Ukraine has largely stymied Russian advances across the frontline, blunting the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive thus far. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov claimed on April 29 that the Trump-Putin call lasted for 1.5 hours and that Putin briefed Trump on the current state of the war in Ukraine, claiming that Russia holds the strategic initiative and is “pushing back” Ukrainian positions and that Russia will achieve its war goals “in any case” but would prefer to achieve these goals diplomatically. Putin and other Kremlin officials have consistently attempted to portray Ukraine as the intransigent party in peace negotiations for refusing to capitulate to Putin’s demands, despite Russia’s failure to offer meaningful concessions in return, and Putin again reiterated this point to Trump on April 29. Putin again asserted that Russia is performing well on the battlefield in order to justify his demand for Ukrainian capitulation. The premise of Putin’s claim remains false, however. Ukrainian forces continue to deny Russian significant advances in several sectors of the frontline, including in Russia’s priority objective of Donetsk Oblast, and are imposing increasing costs and casualties on Russian forces for these continued offensive operations. Ukraine has conducted significant counterattacks in southern Ukraine since January 2026 that have generated operational-level effects across the theater. Russians are increasingly feeling the costs of the war as Russia’s economy continues to face significant challenges, casualties continue to mount, and recruitment becomes more difficult. The Kremlin is very likely attempting to mitigate some of these costs by attempting to convince Trump and the West to push Ukraine to capitulate in a way that Russia’s full-scale invasion has failed to do and is obfuscating its own military and economic failures as part of this effort.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Ukrainian forces are engaged in an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin used his April 29 phone call with US President Donald Trump to reiterate his commitment to his original war aims and promote his cognitive warfare effort, falsely portraying Ukraine’s defenses as collapsing and Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable. Ukraine has largely stymied Russian advances across the frontline, blunting the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive thus far.

  • The Kremlin also reportedly used the Trump-Putin call to scold Trump for US-Israeli operations against Iran.

  • Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Kremlin to once again downgrade the festivities for its annual May 9 Victory Day parade, an event that Putin has historically used to posture Russian military power and victory in Ukraine.

  • The Kremlin is likely using the threat of “terrorist activity” to cloak voter suppression and illegal activities in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September 2026 elections.

  • Ukraine’s domestic defense industrial base (DIB) and production capabilities continues to support allies.

  • Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, western Zaporizhia Oblast, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions.

  • Russian forces launched 171 drones against Ukraine.

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