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Iran does not appear to have altered its negotiating position over the management of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program in its latest proposal. Some elements of the Iranian regime may calculate that Iran can impose sufficient economic and political costs on the United States to coerce the United States to make concessions. Two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times on May 1 that Iran’s new proposal, which Iran submitted to the United States via Pakistani mediators on April 30, removed a previous condition that required the United States to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports before Iran and the United States could begin negotiations. Iran’s proposal also reportedly states that Iran is willing to “open” the Strait of Hormuz before the United States announces an end to its blockade. Iran similarly offered to “open” the strait in its previous proposal on April 26, but caveated that it would charge vessels a toll to transit through the strait. Iranian officials have not publicly indicated that the regime will abandon its proposed toll scheme. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated on April 30 that Iran will impose a “new management” in the strait that will reap “economic benefits” for Iran, for example. Iran’s latest proposal also pushes discussions over nuclear issues to a later stage, similar to Iran’s April 26 proposal. ISW-CTP previously noted that any proposal that pushes nuclear negotiations to a later stage would not force Iran to make concessions regarding its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile or ability to enrich uranium up front, but would rather grant Iran more time to engage in talks about these issues. US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s revised proposal on May 1.
Senior Iranian military and security officials have also expressed pessimism about the prospects for compromise between Iran and the United States. Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Jafar Asadi and an Iranian security official speaking to Agence-France Presse (AFP) both described renewed military conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel as “likely” and emphasized that Iranian armed forces remain on full alert. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is responsible for joint and wartime operations.
Iran is taking steps to try to withstand the US naval blockade. Iran has begun reducing its oil production as its storage capacity reaches its limits, according to a senior Iranian official speaking to Bloomberg on May 2. Iran is likely reducing oil production rather than halting it because shutting down oil production could cause significant damage to Iranian oil fields. Pentagon officials told Axios on May 1 that 31 tankers carrying roughly 53 million barrels of Iranian oil, worth at least $4.8 billion USD, remain in the Persian Gulf because of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. The United States has simultaneously expanded economic sanctions to deepen Iran’s isolation and restrict its access to energy markets and financial channels.
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