May 2, 2026

Data Cutoff: 12:15 PM ET

Christina Harward, Samuel Shafiro, Justin Young, Jennie Olmsted, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, not counting areas into which Russian troops may have infiltrated. The Russian rate of advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025 as continued Ukrainian ground counterattacks, Ukrainian mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s throttling of Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian military.

The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns. Weather data indicates that average temperatures in eastern Ukraine were about three degrees Fahrenheit colder in Winter 2025 to 2026 (December to February) than in Winter 2024 to 2025, and that Winter 2025 to 2026 was significantly wetter than Winter 2024 to 2025. ISW has previously observed relative declines in the rate of Russian advances during March and April due to seasonal weather effects, namely the muddy rasputitsa season, the period in which melting frozen winter ground and spring rains degrade conditions for mechanized movement. Russian forces have previously increased their advances in May and June as ground dries, and it remains to be seen whether such trends will repeat in 2026. ISW has observed less commentary in 2026 than in previous years regarding the effects of weather conditions on Russian advances, however.

The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 1,443.35 square kilometers in the past six months (November 2025 to April 2026) compared with 2,368.38 square kilometers seized during the same time period in 2024-2025. Russian forces seized an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2026 compared to 9.76 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2025. Russian forces have been increasingly using infiltration tactics since Fall 2025, however, and ISW created its assessed Russian infiltration layer to depict these infiltration areas as distinct from areas in which Russian forces have advanced and seized territory. Comparisons of Russian gains this year with those of previous years, when infiltration tactics were rarer, are not straightforward, as Russian forces exert a significantly lower degree of control over infiltration areas than they do over seized areas.

• Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.

• The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns.

• The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult.  

• The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain.

• ISW has reviewed and refined its mapping data and methodology, identifying and rectifying some data artifacts that did not affect the visible map geometry but did affect some calculations of area. These changes have not affected ISW’s previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance.

• Russian milbloggers identified problems with the Russian air campaign and assessed that Russian forces may not be able to take advantage of reported increased bombing capabilities.

• Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

• Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian air defense system during their April 30 to May 1 overnight strike against Krasnodar Krai.

• Russian forces launched 163 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

ISW offers customizable email subscription options. Click below to learn more and customize your preferences.

ISW is powered by the support of individuals like you.

Help us stay independent and impactful.

Website | Jobs | Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

© 2026 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project. All rights reserved.

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.