[ISW] 이란 업데이트 특별 보고서, 2026년 5월 3일

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핵심 내용:

  • 이란의 반대 제안: 이란이 미국에 제시한 반대 제안은 3단계 계획을 포함하고 있다고 알려졌습니다.

    • 1단계: 전쟁 조기 종식, 이란에 대한 미래의 연합군 공격 보장, 호르무즈 해협 문제 해결
    • 2단계: 이란 핵 프로그램 관련 논의 연기
    • 3단계 (후속 단계): 핵 관련 문제 논의
  • 핵 문제 논의 가능성 제시: 이란은 전쟁 종식과 해상 봉쇄 해제를 위해 핵 문제 논의를 늦추는 방안을 제시한 것으로 보입니다.

    • 우라늄 농축 중단, 고농축 우라늄 (HEU) 비축량 이전 또는 희석 등 다양한 옵션을 2단계에서 논의할 것을 제안
    • 하지만, 이란은 최신 제안에서 핵 프로그램 관련 양보에 대한 확정적인 약속을 하지 않은 것으로 보임
  • 미국의 반응: 이란 외무부 대변인 에스마일 바가에이 (Esmail Baghaei)에 따르면 미국은 이란의 반대 제안에 응답했다고 합니다.

    • 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령은 5월 1일 이란의 제안에 “만족하지 않는다”고 언급

참고 자료 및 최신 뉴스 링크:

아래 링크들은 위에 언급된 내용과 관련된 최신 정보를 제공합니다.


  1. CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) – Iran’s Nuclear Program


    (미국 외교 협의회: 이란 핵 프로그램 관련 심층 분석 – 이란 핵 문제와 관련된 배경, 현재 상황, 외교적 노력 등에 대한 정보를 제공합니다.)

  2. United States Department of State – Iran


    (미국 국무부: 이란 관련 페이지 – 미국의 이란 정책, 관련 발표, 보도자료 등을 확인할 수 있습니다.)

  3. Reuters – Iran gives U.S. response on Israel-Gaza war


    (로이터: 이란, 이스라엘-가자 전쟁 관련 미국에 답변 – 이란과 미국 간의 외교적 움직임, 관련 보도 기사)

  4. Al Jazeera – Iran reacts to US proposal on nuclear deal revival


    (알자지라: 이란, 핵 합의 부활에 대한 미국 제안에 반응 – 이란의 공식 반응 및 관련 논의에 대한 정보)

주의: 링크의 정보는 시간이 지남에 따라 변경될 수 있습니다. 최신 정보를 확인하려면 링크를 직접 방문하여 확인하십시오.

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[원문]

Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war.

May 3, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

Adham Fattah, Parker Hempel, Ria Reddy, Avery Borens, and Annika Ganzeveld

TOPLINES

Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase. US President Donald Trump expressed doubt on May 2 that the proposal “would be acceptable.” Al Jazeera, citing unspecified sources, reported on May 3 that Iran’s counterproposal to the United States comprises three phases. The first phase includes a “complete end to the war” within 30 days, a mutual “guarantee of non-aggression” between the United States, Israel, Iran, and the Axis of Resistance, anend to the US blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for the “reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for Iran “in a new and innovative format,” and the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iran’s “maritime perimeter.” It is unclear whether the compensation clause refers to Iran’s demand for war reparations or Iran’s proposal to establish a toll scheme in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran included a plan to charge vessels that transit through the strait a fee in its previous proposal on April 26. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated on April 30 that Iran will impose a “new management” in the strait that will reap “economic benefits” for Iran, likely referring to the toll scheme. An Iranian media outlet affiliated with former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani similarly reported on May 2 that Iran’s counterproposal includes “a new mechanism” for the Strait of Hormuz. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media separately reported on May 2 that the Iranian Parliament plans to approve a 12-point plan that would place restrictions on which ships are allowed to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Ships belonging to “hostile countries” would be required to pay war reparations to Iran in order to pass through the strait under this plan.

The second phase of Iran’s proposal reportedly includes negotiations between the United States and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program. Iran appears to be offering the possibility of discussing nuclear issues at a later date in order to push the United States to end the war and lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Iran does not appear to have made any firm commitments to make concessions regarding its nuclear program in its latest proposal, however. Axios reported on May 2 that Iran would agree to conduct a month of nuclear negotiations if the United States and Iran reached an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war in the next month, citing two sources briefed on the proposal. Al Jazeera reported that Iran offered to “discuss the idea” of pausing uranium enrichment for “up to 15 years,” which is longer than previous Iranian proposals to pause enrichment for up to five years. The Iranian proposal also posits that Iran could enrich up to 3.6 percent after the pause ends. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action previously allowed Iran to enrich up to 3.67 percent. President Trump has previously indicated that he would not accept a pause in enrichment and instead seeks for Iran to permanently suspend enrichment. The proposal also states that Iran would be willing to “discuss the fate of” Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, with possible options including transferring the stockpile abroad or diluting it. The United States has demanded that Iran hand over its HEU stockpile. The proposal also insists that Iran will not dismantle any of its nuclear facilities. The proposal emphasizes the need for sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for Iran’s nuclear “concessions.” The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on May 1 that Iran’s proposal “calls for discussing the issues around Iran’s nuclear file in exchange for US sanctions relief.” Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei insisted on May 3 that Iran’s 14-point counterproposal is exclusively focused on ending the war and does not address nuclear issues.

Baghaei announced on May 3 that the United States has responded to Iran’s counterproposal and that the Iranian regime is reviewing the United States’ response. President Trump previously stated on May 1 that he was “not satisfied” with the Iranian counterproposal.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase.

  • Iran appears to be offering the possibility of discussing nuclear issues at a later date in order to push the United States to end the war and lift its naval blockade. Iran reportedly offered to discuss various options for pausing uranium enrichment, transferring or diluting its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, and other nuclear-related issues in the second phase of its proposal. Iran does not appear to have made any firm commitments to make concessions regarding its nuclear program in its latest proposal, however.

  • The United States has reportedly responded to Iran’s counterproposal, according to Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. US President Donald Trump previously stated on May 1 that he was “not satisfied” with the Iranian proposal.

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