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Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev directly threatened Finland and used language that directly mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine. Medvedev claimed in an opinion piece for Kremlin newswire TASS on September 8 that the “main thing” that Finland should not “forget” is that confrontation with Russia “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.” Medvedev claimed that Finland is historically tied to Nazi Germany and that Finnish authorities in the 1940s wanted to expand Finland’s borders to include Eastern Karelia, Leningrad (modern-day St. Petersburg), and the Kola Peninsula – areas in modern-day Russia. Medvedev claimed that the current Finnish government is “Russophobic,” and that “the thirst for profit at the expense of Russia was installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” Medvedev claimed that Finnish authorities historically attempted to erase the “historical and cultural identity” of ethnic Russians and to commit genocide against the Slavic population. Medvedev claimed that Finland joined NATO under the “guise” of defense but is actually preparing for war against Russia – ignoring the fact that Finland abandoned its long held military neutrality to join NATO in direct response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022. Medvedev claimed that NATO will use Finland as “a springboard for an attack” on Russia.
Medvedev’s threat against Finland is not unique but rather part of an ongoing Kremlin effort to threaten NATO states and justify future Russian aggression. Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev similarly claimed on March 13 that Finland tried to “exterminate” the Slavic population and that the West is “again turning [Finland] into a springboard” for aggression against Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Finland in December 2023, claiming that NATO “dragged” Finland into the alliance and that “there will be problems” with Finland. Russian officials have been increasingly invoking narratives about Finland’s historic ties to Russia, and Russian information operations targeting Finland have long covered topics such as Finland’s history as a Nazi ally during the Second World War, Finnish intent to gain lost territories, and the West’s preparations to use Finland to threaten northwestern Russia. The Kremlin has been employing the same playbook that it used against Ukraine towards NATO states, such as Finland and the Baltics, to set informational conditions for possible future Russian aggression.
Russia continues to expand its defense industrial base (DIB) and take measures to safeguard defense industrial enterprises against long-range Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on September 7 that Russia plans to produce 2,500 high-precision missiles, including Iskander cruise and ballistic missiles and Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles in 2025. Skibitskyi noted that the GUR has observed a significant increase in Russian drone production, especially Geran (Russian analogues of the Iranian Shahed drone), Garpiya (Shahed analogues with components from the Peoples’ Republic of China [PRC]), and first-person view (FPV) drones, and that Ukrainian military intelligence indicates that the Russian military has a rearmament plan for 2026 to 2037. Skibitskyi reported that most of the “powerful” Russian defense enterprises are located 750 kilometers or further away from the Ukrainian border and that only 25 percent at within the 250-to-500-kilometer range. Skibitskyi stated that Ukraine has not observed signs that Russia is relocating defense industrial enterprises, but that Russia is building its new defense industrial enterprises 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Skibitskyi stated that Russia has diversified its defense industrial production such that more than 100 enterprises can be involved in the production of one type of weapon. The construction of defense industrial enterprises far from the Ukrainian border are attempts to protect the DIB from long-range Ukrainian strikes, and Russia’s diversification of its production line likely aims to prevent Ukrainian strikes from interrupting the entire production process.
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