[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 9월 26일

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핵심 요약:

  • 스냅백 제재:
    E3 (영국, 프랑스, 독일)는 2025년 9월 27일에 이란에 대해 유엔 안전 보장 이사회 (UNSC) 제재를 재부과할 예정입니다. 이는 이란이 스냅백 메커니즘을 늦추기 위해 마지막으로 시도했음에도 불구하고 이루어진 것입니다. E3는 이란이 스냅백 메커니즘의 기한을 6개월 연장하는 러시아-중국 결의안을 UNSC가 채택하는 대가로, 국제 원자력 기구 (IAEA) 조사관에게 나탄즈 핵 시설에 대한 완전한 접근을 즉시 허용하겠다는 제안을 거부했습니다.
  • 이란 핵 프로그램:
    이란은 2025년 6월 이스라엘-이란 전쟁 동안 피해를 입거나 공격받지 않은 에스파한 주에 위치한 콜랑 가즈 라 산 시설에서 핵 인프라를 계속 확장하고 있습니다. 이란은 전쟁 이후 이 시설의 보안 경계 및 터널 입구에 상당한 변화를 주었으며, 터널 입구 외부의 굴착 토사 증가는 시설 내 터널 작업이 증가했음을 시사합니다.
  • 헤즈볼라-사우디아라비아 관계:
    이란은 헤즈볼라의 임박한 무장을 막기 위해 사우디아라비아 내 반 이스라엘 정서를 이용하려 시도하고 있습니다. 이란이 사우디 정부 내 반 이스라엘 정서를 이용하려는 시도는 헤즈볼라가 훈련시킨 대리인과 파트너를 동원하여 사우디아라비아를 오랫동안 공격해 온 이란의 역사로 인해 실패할 가능성이 높습니다.

최신 자료 및 관련 링크:

참고: 위에 제시된 링크들은 관련 내용을 제공하지만, 최신 상황과 다를 수 있습니다. 최신 정보는 해당 기관의 공식 웹사이트 또는 신뢰할 수 있는 언론 매체를 통해 확인하시기 바랍니다.

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[원문]

The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) will reimpose UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran on September 27

September 26, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Kelly Campa, Adham Fattah, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Zahra Wakilzada, Avery Borens, Parker Hempel, and Brian Carter

TOPLINES

The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) will reimpose UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran on September 27 despite a last-ditch Iranian effort to delay the snapback mechanism. A UK-based media outlet reported on September 26 that Iran offered to immediately grant International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors full access to the Natanz Nuclear Facility. Iran, in return, called for the UNSC to adopt a Russian-Chinese resolution to extend the snapback mechanism’s deadline by six months. The UNSC rejected the Russian-Chinese resolution in a vote on September 26, which means the UNSC sanctions will automatically be reimposed on September 27. The E3 offered in July 2025 to extend the snapback mechanism’s deadline if Iran fully cooperated with the IAEA, resumed nuclear talks with the United States, and accounted for its 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile. Iran failed to meet the E3’s conditions.

Iran has continued to expand its nuclear infrastructure at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province, which was not damaged or targeted during the Israel–Iran War in June 2025. The Washington Post, citing satellite imagery, reported on September 26 that Iran has made key changes at the site since the war.

  • Security perimeter: Iran completed construction on roughly 4,000 feet of wall on the western edge and graded a parallel road, which brings the enclosure close to completion.
  • Tunnel entrance: Iran reinforced one eastern entrance with dirt and rock to prevent damage or potential collapse in future airstrikes.
  • Excavation spoil: The pile of rock and soil outside the eastern tunnels has modestly increased, indicating continued tunneling inside the mountain.

Unspecified analysts told the Washington Post that the facility’s underground halls may be 260 to 330 feet deep, which is deeper than the underground halls at Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The depth of the facility’s underground halls has fueled suspicions that the site could serve not only as a centrifuge assembly plant, as Iran announced in 2020, but also as a covert enrichment facility or secure storage for near-weapons-grade uranium. The Institute for Science and International Security reported in April 2025 that Iran had already begun building a security wall with new roads and space for fences, lights, and cameras at the facility. The institute’s report noted that the facility could house an advanced centrifuge assembly plant or potentially a small undeclared enrichment plant. The IAEA has never inspected the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility, which illustrates the limitations that the IAEA faces in obtaining a complete picture of Iran‘s nuclear program. Iran also barred IAEA inspectors from accessing the site’s tunnels in April 2025 and told the agency that “it is none of [their] business.”

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Snapback Sanctions: The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) will reimpose UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran on September 27 despite a last-ditch Iranian effort to delay the snapback mechanism. The E3 rejected Iran’s offer to immediately grant International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors full access to the Natanz Nuclear Facility in return for the UNSC adopting a Russian-Chinese resolution to extend the snapback mechanism’s deadline by six months.

  • Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran has continued to expand its nuclear infrastructure at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province, which was not damaged or targeted during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025. Iran has made significant changes to the site’s security perimeter and tunnel entrance since the war, and increased excavation spoil outside the tunnel entrances suggests increased tunneling at the site.

  • Hezbollah-Saudi Arabia Relations: Iran is attempting to exploit anti-Israel sentiments in Saudi Arabia in order to protect Hezbollah from its looming disarmament. Iran’s attempts to exploit anti-Israel sentiment in the Saudi government will most likely fail due in part to Iran’s long history of attacking Saudi Arabia with proxies and partners trained by Hezbollah.

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