[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 10월 10일

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주요 내용 요약:

가자 지구 휴전: 이스라엘과 하마스는 10월 10일 가자 지구에서 휴전을 시행했습니다. 이 휴전 협정은 하마스 무장 해제, 이스라엘의 완전 철수, 가자의 미래 통치 등, 처음 미국 대통령 도널드 트럼프의 가자 지구 평화 계획에 포함되었던 미해결 문제들을 다루지 않습니다. 이스라엘 방위군(IDF)은 휴전 시작 전에 가자 지구 동쪽 절반으로 철수했습니다.

이란 지원 단체에 대한 미국의 제재: 미국은 10월 9일, 두 개의 친이란 시아파 민병대 (PMF) 소유 상업 단체, 세 명의 이라크 은행 임원, 그리고 세 명의 카타이브 헤즈볼라 고위 관계자를 제재했습니다. 이란은 오랫동안 이라크 내 파트너들을 이용하여 미국 및 국제 제재를 회피해 왔습니다. 이번 미국의 제재는 이란을 국제 금융 시스템으로부터 고립시키고, 이란의 초국가적 밀수 노력을 방해하기 위한 일환입니다.

이라크 주둔 미군: 미국 상원은 10월 10일, 1991년과 2002년 이라크에서 군사력 사용을 승인하는 두 개의 법률(AUMF)을 폐지하는 초당적 수정안을 포함한 국방수권법(NDAA)을 통과시켰습니다. 하원은 이미 NDAA를 통과시켰으며, 이제 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 이 법안에 서명해야 법으로 발효됩니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

참고: 위에 제시된 링크들은 해당 주제와 관련된 최근 정보와 자료를 제공하며, 내용이 업데이트될 수 있습니다.

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[원문]

Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at 5:00 AM ET on October 10.

October 10, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Andie Parry, Nidal Morrison, Katherine Wells, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, Parker Hempel, and Brian Carter

TOPLINES

Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at 5:00 AM ET on October 10. The ceasefire agreement does not address outstanding issues that were initially included in US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal, or Gaza’s future governance. The Israeli government approved the ceasefire and hostage release resolution during a cabinet meeting on October 9 after two weeks of negotiations. Trump said that he would not permit Israel to abandon the deal. Axios reported that Trump’s assurances were a “key factor” in convincing Hamas to accept the ceasefire agreement, citing two US officials.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to the eastern half of the Gaza Strip before the ceasefire began and has assured Hamas it will not reenter the western areas of the Strip if Hamas meets its ceasefire and hostage release obligations. Israeli forces retain control of approximately 53 percent of the Gaza Strip. The IDF also halted all aerial surveillance over Palestinian-controlled areas of the Gaza Strip. Hamas agreed to release all 20 living Israeli hostages within three days of the ceasefire’s implementation. Hamas will also return the remains of all deceased hostages the group has in its possession in the first three days. The agreement stipulates that 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid will enter the Gaza Strip each day. US, Qatari, Egyptian, and Turkish officials will coordinate the ceasefire implementation between Israel and Hamas. Two hundred US military personnel will be in Israel to assist with the ceasefire implementation, but they will not enter the Gaza Strip.

Hamas’ partners in the Axis of Resistance welcomed the ceasefire but expressed skepticism that Israel would adhere to its terms. Iraqi militia leaders welcomed the ceasefire as a “victory.” Iraqi militias launched a support campaign in November 2023 for Palestinians by attacking Israel and US bases with drones and rockets. The Iranian supreme leader warned on October 10 that Israel is not trustworthy and that there is no guarantee that Israel will not resume the war against Hamas. An Iranian government spokesperson said on October 10 that Iran will support every step toward a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, however. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened on October 9 that the Houthis would continue to provide “backup” for Gazans if Israel does not fulfill its obligations under the ceasefire. The Houthis have launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israel since October 2023. The Houthis would retain the ability to resume attacks against Israel or international shipping at any time and for any reason in the future, even if they suspended attacks due to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Gaza Ceasefire: Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on October 10. The ceasefire agreement does not address outstanding issues that were initially included in US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal, or Gaza’s future governance. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to the eastern half of the Gaza Strip before the ceasefire began.

US Sanctions on Iranian-backed Entities: The United States sanctioned two Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)-owned commercial entities, three Iraqi bank executives, and three Kataib Hezbollah officials on October 9. Iran has long used partners in Iraq to circumvent US and international sanctions. These US sanctions are part of an effort to isolate Iran from the international financial system and hinder transnational Iranian smuggling efforts.



US Forces in Iraq: The US Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on October 10, which included a bipartisan amendment to repeal two laws authorizing the use of military force (AUMF) in Iraq in 1991 and 2002. The House has already passed the NDAA, and now US President Donald Trump must sign the bill before it becomes law.

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